Monday, March 23, 2026 | Published 7:00 AM PT | Data: Yahoo Finance

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Section 1 — World Indices

Index	Price	Change %	Region
IBOVESPA	182,173	+3.38%	Americas
Russell 2000	2,511.96	+3.01%	Americas
Nasdaq Composite	22,114	+2.16%	Americas
Dow Jones 30	46,469	+1.96%	Americas
S&P 500	6,630	+1.90%	Americas
S&P/TSX Composite	31,895	+1.84%	Americas
EURO STOXX 50	5,650	+2.71%	Europe
DAX	22,966	+2.62%	Europe
MSCI Europe	2,573	+2.26%	Europe
CAC 40	7,823	+2.05%	Europe
FTSE 100	9,998	+0.80%	Europe
S&P/ASX 200	8,366	-0.74%	Asia
S&P BSE SENSEX	72,696	-2.46%	Asia
Nikkei 225	51,515	-3.48%	Asia
Hang Seng	24,382	-3.54%	Asia
SSE Composite	3,813	-3.63%	Asia
KOSPI	5,406	-6.49%	Asia
VIX	23.95	-10.56%	—

The Monday session is opening with a pronounced global bifurcation that strategists will be debating all week. The Western hemisphere is staging a sharp relief rally — the S&P 500 up 1.90%, the Nasdaq up 2.16%, Brazil’s IBOVESPA surging 3.38%, and Europe’s DAX adding 2.62% — while Asian markets experienced one of their worst collective sessions in months. The KOSPI’s -6.49% collapse is the single most alarming data point of the morning, raising serious questions about whether South Korean equities are pricing a regional shock that has not yet fully registered in US futures.

The Nikkei’s -3.48% decline and the Hang Seng’s -3.54% drop compound the concern. China’s SSE Composite falling 3.63% suggests that whatever the catalyst — whether renewed trade friction, currency stress, or a macro shock emanating from the region — it is broad-based across Northeast Asia. India’s SENSEX joining the sell-off at -2.46% removes any possibility of interpreting this as Korea-specific.

VIX at 23.95, down 10.56% on the session, is the critical counternarrative. A VIX above 20 still signals elevated uncertainty, but the sharp daily decline tells us that US options market participants are not reading the Asian rout as a contagion threat to domestic equities — at least not yet. For context, VIX at 24 is historically associated with moderate stress; a move above 30 would signal institutional hedging acceleration. The current level suggests this Monday open is a buy-the-dip session in US risk assets, not a flight-to-safety moment, though the divergence with Asia remains a tail risk worth monitoring into the week.

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Section 2 — Futures & Commodities

Asset	Price	Change %	Signal
S&P 500 (SPY proxy)	660.88	+1.90%	Bull
Nasdaq (QQQ proxy)	594.02	+2.18%	Bull
Russell 2000 (IWM proxy)	249.14	+2.86%	Bull
Crude Oil (WTI)	$88.78	-9.18%	Bear
Brent Crude	$100.70	-10.24%	Bear
Gold	$4,510.30	-1.41%	Neutral
Silver	$70.79	+1.62%	Bull
Copper (May 26)	$5.50	+2.39%	Bull
Platinum (Apr 26)	$1,904.10	-3.37%	Bear
Natural Gas (Apr 26)	$2.9270	-4.47%	Bear
10-Yr T-Note Futures	110.86	+0.33%	Bull
2-Yr T-Note Futures	103.66	+0.12%	Bull

The single most consequential commodity move this morning is crude oil’s near-double-digit collapse, with WTI plunging 9.18% to $88.78 and Brent crossing below $101 at -10.24%. Moves of this magnitude in crude are not noise — they represent fundamental repricing of the supply-demand equation. The most likely explanations are a combination of OPEC+ production increase signals, demand destruction fears from the Asian economic softness, and a weakening dollar that has historically provided crude with a floor that is now slipping.

Gold’s -1.41% decline to $4,510 is noteworthy for what it signals alongside the oil rout. In a true flight-to-safety environment, gold should be climbing as crude falls. Instead, gold is pulling back modestly, suggesting this session’s commodity selling is more supply-shock or demand-destruction driven than geopolitical fear driven. Copper’s +2.39% gain is the constructive outlier — the industrial metal’s strength directly contradicts a pure global slowdown narrative and suggests that manufacturing demand, particularly around electrification and AI infrastructure build-out, remains intact even as energy markets crater.

Silver’s +1.62% gain while gold falls is consistent with industrial demand holding up, further validating copper’s message. Natural gas falling 4.47% alongside crude reinforces that the energy complex is broadly under pressure, likely from a demand-side repricing as Asian growth expectations are revised lower following this morning’s regional equity carnage.

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Section 3 — Bonds

Instrument	Yield / Price	Change	Signal
30-Yr Treasury Yield	4.903%	-5.7 bps	Rallying
10-Yr Treasury Yield	4.334%	-5.7 bps	Rallying
5-Yr Treasury Yield	3.950%	-6.2 bps	Rallying
13-Wk T-Bill	3.620%	+0.2 bps	Flat
TLT (20+ Yr Treasury ETF)	$86.51	+0.79%	Bull
10-Yr T-Note Futures	110.86	+0.33%	Bull
2-Yr T-Note Futures	103.66	+0.12%	Bull

Note: HYG and LQD not directly available in today’s Yahoo Finance feed; inferred from TLT and broader rate dynamics.

The bond market this morning is sending a clear and important signal: yields are falling across the curve even as equities rally. Normally, a strong equity open would pressure bonds as investors rotate out of fixed income into risk assets. The fact that the 10-year is pulling back to 4.334% and the 30-year is holding just below 4.903% while the S&P adds nearly 2% suggests bond buyers are treating this as a global risk-off signal — anchored in Asian contagion fears — even as US equity traders see a buying opportunity.

The 30-year Treasury flirting just below 5.0% remains the structural line in the sand for fixed income markets. At 4.903%, it is close enough to 5% that any re-acceleration in inflation data or fiscal concern could push it through that psychological threshold, which would create renewed pressure on long-duration assets, mortgage rates, and growth stock valuations. The 14-basis-point differential between the 5-year (3.950%) and 10-year (4.334%) shows a moderately normal upward slope in the belly and long end of the curve.

The 13-week T-bill at 3.62% remaining essentially flat while longer maturities rally represents a curve steepening bias. This is the pattern typical of markets beginning to discount Fed easing at some point in the medium term. TLT’s modest +0.79% gain suggests duration buyers are comfortable adding risk at these levels, but the absence of a dramatic TLT surge confirms that we are not in a true flight-to-quality panic.

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Section 4 — Currencies

Pair	Rate	Change %	Signal
EUR/USD	1.1639	+0.55%	EUR Strength
USD/JPY	158.291	-0.58%	Mild Yen Strength
USD/AUD	1.4167	-0.50%	AUD Strength
USD/CAD	1.3677	-0.34%	CAD Strength
USD/GBP	0.7423	-0.94%	GBP Strength
USD/MXN	17.7052	-1.09%	MXN Strength
DXY (USD Index)	98.97	-0.68%	USD Weak

The US Dollar Index breaking below 99.00 at 98.97 is a pivotal technical development that will have ripple effects across asset classes. The DXY at this level represents a multi-month weak point for the dollar, and combined with crude oil’s collapse, creates an unusual dynamic: normally, a weakening dollar provides a floor for oil prices (since oil is dollar-denominated), yet both are declining simultaneously — suggesting the oil move is being driven by genuine demand destruction or supply excess rather than dollar mechanics.

The Mexican peso strengthening 1.09% against the dollar is the most surprising currency move in the table. MXN has historically been a sentiment barometer for EM risk appetite and US trade policy sensitivity — peso strength in this environment suggests that whatever is spooking Asian markets has not yet spread to Latin American risk assets. EUR/USD’s +0.55% move to 1.1639 is consistent with a dollar weakness narrative and may reflect capital repatriation from European investors who had been long US assets.

The yen’s modest 0.58% strengthening to 158.29 USD/JPY is interesting in the context of Japan’s -3.48% equity collapse. In a classic risk-off yen-strength scenario, USD/JPY would be moving far more aggressively downward — the relatively muted move suggests the BOJ’s continued policy normalization path is capping the yen’s safe-haven bid. GBP’s 0.94% strengthening relative to the dollar is the largest among the majors today, suggesting UK-specific flows or broad-based dollar selling.

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Section 5 — Options

Instrument	Price	Change %	Signal
VIX	23.95	-10.56%	Elevated but Falling
UVIX (2x Long VIX ETF)	$7.89	-13.96%	Hedges Unwinding
SQQQ (3x NASDAQ Bear)	$75.10	-6.42%	Bears Losing
TZA (3x Small Cap Bear)	$7.06	-8.43%	Bears Losing
TQQQ (3x NASDAQ Bull)	$45.91	+6.56%	Leverage Bulls Active
SOXL (3x Semi Bull)	$56.20	+9.89%	Semis Screaming

The most important signal in the options market today is UVIX falling 13.96% — an emphatic statement that volatility sellers are winning and hedges are being torn off at pace. VIX at 23.95 represents a session where professional options market makers are aggressively repricing downside protection, which is consistent with the equity rally but striking given the magnitude of Asian market losses that might normally sustain elevated VIX premium.

At a VIX of 24, options premium remains elevated — sellers of premium can still collect meaningful theta, but buyers of puts for directional hedging face a steep cost. A move below VIX 20 would signal normalization; a move above 30 would indicate institutional hedging acceleration and likely trigger systematic selling programs. The current 23–24 zone is “worried but not panicking” territory — a zone where active managers tend to selectively reduce hedge loads rather than initiate new protective positions.

The simultaneous collapse of both bear ETF volumes (SQQQ -6.42%, TZA -8.43%) while bull leveraged ETFs surge (TQQQ +6.56%, SOXL +9.89%) indicates a decisive shift in intraday positioning away from defensive postures. For premium sellers, the current VIX level offers attractive entry on short strangle or cash-secured put strategies on names with fundamental support.

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Section 6 — Sectors

Note: Yahoo Finance’s dedicated sectors page returned an error today. Sector analysis is derived from representative ETFs in the most-active list.

ETF	Sector	Price	Change %	Volume	Signal
SOXL	Semiconductors (3x)	$56.20	+9.89%	56.6M	Strong Bull
QQQ	Tech/Growth	$594.02	+2.18%	26.5M	Bull
IWM	Small Cap	$249.14	+2.86%	27.4M	Bull
SPY	Broad Market	$660.88	+1.90%	40.4M	Bull
XLF	Financials	$49.61	+1.60%	22.6M	Bull
GDX	Gold Miners	$84.49	+5.46%	22.2M	Strong Bull
TLT	Long Duration Bonds	$86.51	+0.82%	20.8M	Mild Bull
XLE	Energy	$59.69	+1.29%	26.9M	Bull (with caveats)
SOXS	Semis Bear (3x)	$36.74	-9.64%	25.1M	Bears Crushed
TZA	Small Cap Bear (3x)	$7.06	-8.43%	92.1M	Bears Crushed

Semiconductors are the unambiguous sector leader today, with SOXL’s nearly 10% gain implying roughly 3.3% upside in the underlying semiconductor index. NVDA’s +2.82% on 57.8 million shares confirms the sector rotation into tech hardware and aligns with the broader AI infrastructure thesis driving institutional accumulation.

Gold miners via GDX are the second-biggest winner at +5.46%, a somewhat puzzling result given that gold itself is down 1.41%. The divergence typically occurs when equity gold miners are catching up to prior metal price appreciation or when financial buyers prefer the operating leverage of mining equities over physical. The energy sector’s +1.29% in XLE despite crude oil’s 9.18% collapse is another notable divergence — XLE is likely supported by earnings visibility and dividend yield, even as spot oil prices crater. Energy stocks could face significant catch-down pressure if oil weakness persists beyond this session.

Small caps via IWM at +2.86% outperforming the S&P’s +1.90% is a constructive breadth signal — small caps require domestic economic confidence to outperform, and today’s relative strength suggests the market views the Asian turmoil as a regional rather than global demand shock. Financials at +1.60% are consistent with a moderate risk-on session but lag the broader market, with sector rotation still favoring growth over value today.

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Section 7 — Prediction Markets

Note: Yahoo Finance’s prediction markets page (powered by Polymarket) did not load today, redirecting to the main markets overview. Commentary is based on current market regime and bond market pricing.

Macro Event	Est. Probability	Source Basis
Fed holds rates at May FOMC	~70%	Bond market positioning
Fed cuts 25bps by June 2026	~45%	5-yr yield at 3.95% implies moderate cut expectation
US recession by end of 2026	~25–30%	Credit spread behavior, yield curve shape
Oil above $95 by Q2 2026	<20%	Brent collapse below $101 today
VIX above 30 within 30 days	~15%	Current VIX trajectory and bear ETF unwinding

The bond market is the most reliable prediction market available today, and it is pricing a modest but growing probability of Fed easing in the second half of 2026. The 5-year Treasury yield at 3.950% sitting below the 10-year at 4.334% and well below the current upper bound of the Fed funds rate implies that duration buyers believe rates will be lower two-to-five years from now — not dramatically lower, but the directional bias is unmistakably toward easing.

The 30-year yield’s proximity to 5% (currently 4.903%) is the key wildcard for Fed watchers. If a supply-heavy Treasury auction or a surprise inflation print pushes the 30-year through 5%, prediction markets would almost certainly reassign cut probabilities materially lower. At these levels, the bond market is consistent with “one or two cuts by year end” as the central scenario.

The Asian equity carnage today — particularly the KOSPI’s 6.49% single-session loss — will likely flow through into prediction market odds for global recession risk by tomorrow’s open. When Asia’s major manufacturing economies see simultaneous 3–6% equity losses, prediction markets historically reprice US recession odds upward within 48–72 hours, even when US equities are rallying. Energy traders should note that today’s oil collapse effectively eliminates the inflationary commodity shock risk that was constraining Fed dovish pivot bets.

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Section 8 — Stocks

Ticker	Company	Price	Change %	Volume	Avg Vol (3M)	Flag
NVDA	NVIDIA Corp	$177.82	+2.82%	57.8M	174.9M	Below avg vol
TSLA	Tesla	$383.51	+4.23%	25.0M	60.8M	Below avg vol
PLTR	Palantir	$159.21	+5.66%	18.9M	48.3M	AI momentum
INTC	Intel	$45.35	+3.37%	26.0M	104.9M	Below avg vol
AAL	American Airlines	$10.93	+4.75%	24.5M	65.3M	Crude tailwind
RIVN	Rivian	$16.20	+8.65%	14.4M	30.9M	Above avg vol
WULF	TeraWulf	$16.76	+10.17%	16.3M	29.9M	Bitcoin miner
NIO	NIO Inc	$5.78	+6.54%	14.5M	47.6M	China risk
APGE	Apogee Therapeutics	$78.09	+18.25%	1.5M	962K	Catalyst move
AXTI	AXT Inc	$63.30	+16.70%	5.4M	8.4M	Semi materials

Palantir’s +5.66% on 18.9 million shares is today’s most strategically significant large-cap move, as PLTR at $159 is now tracking its AI-government contract narrative without any specific catalyst — pure momentum and sentiment. At a P/E of 239x, Palantir is priced for decades of compounding, and days like today where it outperforms even NVIDIA remind traders that the AI spending theme is far from exhausted in the market’s collective imagination.

The standout story on the upside is APGE (Apogee Therapeutics) at +18.25% — volume of 1.5 million against a 962K average confirms the catalyst is institutional, not retail-driven. AXT Inc’s +16.70% on semiconductor materials ties directly to the sector’s broader strength today; AXT makes compound semiconductors for 5G and photonics, suggesting tight supply conditions in specialty materials.

American Airlines at +4.75% is the most straightforward thematic trade of the session: crude oil down 9% is an airline’s best friend, and AAL’s move is mechanically rational. Watch the entire airline group (UAL was trending at +4.72%) for continued momentum if crude stabilizes below $90. The stock to watch into Tuesday is PLTR: if it consolidates above $155, the bullish momentum structure remains intact; a close back below $150 would signal a false breakout.

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Section 9 — Crypto

Asset	Price	Change %	Market Cap	52-Wk Change	Signal
Bitcoin (BTC)	$71,336.78	+3.63%	$1.427T	-21.47%	Bull
Ethereum (ETH)	$2,174.19	+4.48%	$262.4B	-0.04%	Bull
Solana (SOL)	$91.48	+4.62%	$52.3B	-37.91%	Bull
BNB	$646.25	+2.42%	$88.1B	-1.02%	Bull
XRP	$1.45	+3.25%	$88.7B	-42.55%	Bull
DOGE	$0.09	+2.68%	$14.4B	-50.12%	Lagging
Tether (USDT)	$1.00	-0.01%	$184.2B	—	Stable
Hyperliquid (HYPE)	$38.69	+0.79%	$9.9B	+134.51%	Slowing

Bitcoin’s +3.63% move to $71,336 is reclaiming the $70K psychological level with conviction, and its correlation to today’s risk-on US equity session is near-perfect — this is crypto behaving exactly as a high-beta risk asset, amplifying the S&P’s 2% move into a 3.6% daily gain. The 52-week data tells the more sobering story: BTC is still -21.47% from its peak, meaning institutional buyers who entered near the highs remain underwater.

Ethereum’s +4.48% outperformance relative to BTC narrows the ETH/BTC ratio slightly, which is mildly constructive for altcoins. Solana at +4.62% is the strongest among the majors and remains the preferred play for DeFi and NFT activity — its 37.91% 52-week decline creates a significantly discounted entry relative to BTC’s cycle. XRP’s +3.25% is notable given its -42.55% 52-week performance; regulatory clarity continues to attract institutional interest.

The stablecoin complex — Tether’s $184 billion market cap alongside USDC’s $78.8 billion — represents a combined $262 billion sitting in cash-equivalent crypto positions. This $262 billion stablecoin pool is the most important figure in crypto today: it represents dry powder that can accelerate any BTC rally if it begins deploying into risk assets. BTC’s key support level to watch is $68,000. Given today’s equity risk appetite, a test of $73–75K on BTC is the near-term bull case.

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Section 10 — Private Companies

Note: Yahoo Finance’s Private Companies section (data by Forge Global and EquityZen) did not render quantitative data in today’s page load.

Category	Observation	Signal
AI Infrastructure	Public AI comps surging — private marks re-rating upward	Bull
Energy Tech / Clean Energy	Solar pressure via SEDG -7%; headwinds building	Bear
Crypto-adjacent private cos	BTC +3.6% supports sentiment and secondary market bids	Bull
Consumer / Retail private cos	Oil collapse a tailwind for consumer spending power	Mild Bull
Asia-exposed private cos	KOSPI -6.5%, Nikkei -3.5% repricing regional risk	Bear

The most important private market implication from today’s public market action is the AI infrastructure repricing thesis. With SOXL gaining nearly 10% and Palantir adding 5.66%, the public AI stack is being bid aggressively — and private AI infrastructure companies (data center operators, GPU cloud providers, AI model companies seeking their next funding round) will see mark-to-market tailwinds in secondary markets. When public AI comps are trading at 239x earnings and the semi sector is rallying 3%+ in underlying, venture marks in the AI space face no downward pressure.

The VIX environment at 23.95 is historically unfavorable for IPO activity — underwriters generally prefer sub-20 VIX conditions for new issuance. With VIX elevated but declining, we are at the early stages of a window that could open for IPO activity if the current relief rally sustains into April. The most at-risk private company sector based on today’s data is anything energy-adjacent: the crude oil collapse puts pressure on oil-and-gas private equity marks, and SEDG’s -7% decline in solar suggests even clean energy companies face a tougher repricing environment.

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Section 11 — ETFs

Ticker	Name	Price	Change %	Volume	52-Wk Chg	Signal
TZA	Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X	$7.06	-8.43%	92.1M	-48.91%	Bears Liquidating
TQQQ	ProShares UltraPro QQQ	$45.91	+6.56%	64.1M	+30.29%	Bull
TSLL	Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X	$13.15	+8.46%	60.2M	+8.60%	Bull
SOXL	Direxion Semiconductor Bull 3X	$56.20	+9.89%	56.6M	+143.52%	Strong Bull
UVIX	2x Long VIX Futures ETF	$7.89	-13.96%	43.8M	-68.60%	Hedges Off
SPY	SPDR S&P 500 ETF	$660.88	+1.90%	40.4M	+12.98%	Bull
SCO	ProShares UltraShort Crude Oil	$8.73	+10.03%	36.9M	-54.81%	Oil Crash Trade
USO	United States Oil Fund	$111.37	-8.28%	34.8M	+62.17%	Bear
SLV	iShares Silver Trust	$63.61	+3.40%	32.5M	+105.34%	Bull
SQQQ	ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ	$75.10	-6.42%	31.6M	-52.97%	Bears Losing
IWM	iShares Russell 2000	$249.14	+2.86%	27.4M	+15.97%	Bull
GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	$84.49	+5.46%	22.2M	+81.06%	Strong Bull
TLT	iShares 20+ Yr Treasury Bond	$86.51	+0.82%	20.8M	-4.39%	Mild Bull
XLF	Financial Select Sector SPDR	$49.61	+1.60%	22.6M	-2.13%	Bull
XLE	Energy Select Sector SPDR	$59.69	+1.29%	26.9M	+27.75%	Caution
QQQ	Invesco QQQ Trust	$594.02	+2.18%	26.5M	+18.63%	Bull

The most revealing ETF flow of the morning is TZA’s 92.1 million shares — by far the highest volume ETF today — falling 8.43%. TZA is the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF, and its extraordinary volume paired with a sharp loss means that bearish small-cap hedges are being aggressively unwound. This is institutional covering, not retail panic selling, and it is the strongest signal in today’s entire ETF table that professional money was positioned defensively and is now rapidly repositioning for upside.

The complementary SCO (ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil) gaining 10.03% on 36.9 million shares tells us that oil bears are being rewarded and actively adding to those positions. UVIX crashing 13.96% on 43.8 million shares is the volatility hedge purge that always accompanies risk rallies of this magnitude. For Monday’s session, the actionable ETF positioning is: long SOXL (semiconductors), long GDX (gold miners as equity play), long TQQQ for tactical tech momentum, and short USO/long SCO if crude stays below $90. TLT at $86.51 offers a defensive allocation with yield support if the rally fades.

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Section 12 — Mutual Funds

Note: Yahoo Finance’s Mutual Funds section did not load specific fund-level data today. Category analysis is constructed from representative ETF performance across asset classes.

Fund Category	Proxy ETF/Index	Est. Return Today	YTD Signal	Action Bias
Large Cap Growth	QQQ / TQQQ	+2.1% to +2.3%	YTD negative	Accumulate on dips
Large Cap Value	XLF / SPY blend	+1.6% to +1.9%	YTD negative	Neutral
Semiconductor / Technology	SOXL underlying	+3.0% to +3.5%	YTD strong	Overweight
Energy	XLE blend	+1.0% to +1.5%	YTD positive	Trim on crude weakness
International Developed	EFA / DAX blend	+1.5% to +2.5%	YTD positive	Neutral
Emerging Markets	EEM / Asia blend	-2% to -4%	YTD negative	Underweight
Long-Term Bond	TLT / PIMCO	+0.7% to +0.9%	Flat to negative	Defensive allocation
Money Market	13-Wk T-Bill proxy	~3.62% annualized	Steady	Tactical cash reserve

The money market fund category remains one of the most compelling risk-adjusted allocations in the current regime. With the 13-week T-bill yielding 3.62% annualized, money market funds continue to offer meaningful real returns with zero duration risk. The estimated $6+ trillion sitting in money market funds industry-wide represents the ultimate dry powder — any sustained VIX decline toward 18–20 could catalyze a significant rotation from money market to equities, amplifying any bull move in US stocks.

Active large-cap growth managers are likely showing their best relative performance of the month today, given the QQQ’s 2.18% and Palantir/semiconductor strength. However, YTD context matters: QQQ is showing -5.25% YTD and SPY is -4.63% YTD, meaning that most large-cap growth funds remain in the red for 2026 despite today’s session. Active managers in this category face redemption pressure if April does not sustain the momentum.

The most at-risk mutual fund category from today’s global action is emerging market funds, where the KOSPI -6.49%, Hang Seng -3.54%, and SENSEX -2.46% represent real NAV damage. Retail investors who own EM funds will likely see the headline loss and face the behavioral temptation to redeem — which historically accelerates downward pressure in EM equities. Energy sector mutual funds also face a reckoning if WTI crude sustains below $90 — the XLE’s +1.29% today masks what is likely a more severe underlying commodity pressure that will flow into earnings revisions in Q2.

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Data sourced from Yahoo Finance as of approximately 7:00 AM PT, Monday, March 23, 2026. Market prices are real-time and subject to intraday movement. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Sectors page returned a data error; prediction markets page did not load independently. Mutual fund category data is estimated from representative ETF performance; direct fund NAVs not available via today’s feed.

Published 7:00 AM PT | Data: Yahoo Finance | Last Trading Session: Friday, March 20, 2026

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1. World Indices

Index	Price	Change %	Region
S&P 500	6,506.48	-1.51%	Americas
Dow 30	45,577.47	-0.96%	Americas
Nasdaq	21,647.61	-2.01%	Americas
Russell 2000	2,438.45	-2.26%	Americas
VIX	26.78	+11.31%	Fear Gauge
FTSE 100	9,918.33	-1.44%	Europe
DAX	22,380.19	-2.01%	Europe
CAC 40	7,665.62	-1.82%	Europe
Nikkei 225	53,372.53	-3.38%	Asia
Hang Seng	25,277.32	-0.88%	Asia
SENSEX	74,532.96	+0.44%	Asia
KOSPI	5,781.20	+0.31%	Asia

Friday’s global session was a synchronized risk-off flush with almost no place to hide. The Nikkei led losses at -3.38%, its worst single-day drop in months, followed by the DAX and Euro STOXX 50 both down over 2%. U.S. markets held up better in relative terms — the S&P 500 shed 1.51% and the Nasdaq 2.01% — but the Russell 2000 at -2.26% confirmed the selling was broad, not contained to large caps. The lone outliers were India’s SENSEX (+0.44%) and South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.31%), both of which deserve attention as potential rotation targets if the developed-market selloff deepens. The VIX closing at 26.78 — an 11% single-session spike — confirms institutional hedging activity was intense into the close.

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2. Futures

Contract	Price	Change %	Notes
E-Mini S&P 500 (Jun 26)	6,538.75	-0.31%	Overnight softness
Nasdaq 100 (Jun 26)	24,004.75	-0.40%	Tech pressure continues
Mini Dow Jones (Jun 26)	45,823.00	-0.15%	Relatively better
Crude Oil (May 26)	$98.10	-0.13%	Approaching $100
Brent Crude	$106.67	+0.24%	Premium holding
Gold (Apr 26)	$4,470.00	-2.29%	No safe haven bid
Silver	$68.14	-2.19%	Metals under pressure
Natural Gas (Apr 26)	$3.03	-2.16%	Demand concerns
Copper (May 26)	$5.30	-1.34%	Global growth signal

Sunday futures are confirming the Friday selloff isn’t done. All three major U.S. index futures are in the red, with the Nasdaq leading lower at -0.40% — a signal that tech will likely gap down at Monday’s open. The most important story in futures right now isn’t equities — it’s commodities. Gold is down 2.29% to $4,470 despite a risk-off environment, signaling either forced deleveraging or a broader loss of confidence in traditional safe-haven assets. Crude oil hovering just below $100 (WTI) with Brent at $106+ maintains inflationary pressure even as growth slows. Copper at $5.30 and down 1.34% is the classic global growth canary — watch it closely as a leading indicator for whether this selloff is pricing in a hard landing.

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3. Bonds

Instrument	Yield / Price	Change	Notes
10-Year Treasury	4.3910%	+2.57%	Multi-week high
5-Year Treasury	4.0120%	+2.37%	Pressure building
30-Year Treasury	4.9600%	+2.23%	Approaching 5%
13-Week T-Bill	3.6180%	+0.17%	Short end anchored
TLT (20+ Yr ETF)	$85.83	-1.90%	Bond ETF selling off
HYG (High Yield)	$78.92	-0.93%	Credit spreads widening
LQD (Investment Grade)	$107.85	-1.23%	IG bonds also weak

Friday’s bond market sent one of the clearest macro warnings in recent memory: yields surged across the curve while equities fell simultaneously. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 11 basis points to 4.39%, the 5-year rose to 4.01%, and the 30-year is now knocking on the door of 5.00%. This is not a flight-to-safety rotation — when bonds and stocks sell off together, it signals stagflation concerns or forced institutional deleveraging. HYG high-yield and investment-grade LQD both declining indicates credit spreads are widening across the board. Watch the 10-year yield closely Monday — if it breaks above 4.50%, expect another leg lower in equities.

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4. Currencies

Pair	Rate	Change %	Notes
USD/JPY	159.18	+0.90%	Yen weakening
USD/AUD	1.4264	+1.13%	AUD under pressure
USD/GBP	0.7499	+0.73%	GBP softening
EUR/USD	1.1565	-0.22%	Euro holding
USD/MXN	17.93	+0.19%	Modest EM pressure
USD/CAD	1.3709	-0.11%	CAD resilient
DXY	99.53	-0.12%	Broadly flat

The dollar picture on Friday was nuanced. DXY was essentially flat (-0.12%) while the dollar strengthened significantly against the yen (+0.90%) and Australian dollar (+1.13%). AUD weakness signals commodity-linked currencies are pricing in slower Chinese demand growth. The yen continuing to weaken despite global risk-off is notable — BOJ policy divergence from the rest of the world remains the dominant driver in JPY. The Euro at 1.1565 is holding up better than expected given European equity weakness — watch EUR/USD as a signal for whether European capital is rotating to U.S. assets or staying domestic.

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5. Options

Indicator	Value	Signal
VIX	26.78	Elevated fear
VIX Change	+11.31%	One-day fear spike
UVIX (2x VIX ETF)	$9.17	+13.35%
SQQQ (3x QQQ Short)	$80.25	+5.72%, 57M vol
TZA (3x Small Cap Bear)	$7.71	+6.64%, 135M vol

Friday’s options market was dominated by defensive hedging. The VIX’s 11% single-session surge to 26.78 reflects heavy put buying across the tape, and the volume in inverse/leveraged bear ETFs confirms institutional — not just retail — positioning. For options traders, elevated VIX means implied volatility is expensive right now. Premium sellers find better compensation here, but directional long-options plays are fighting expensive time decay. VIX at 26 is elevated but not at the 35-40 panic/capitulation range. If VIX spikes toward 32-35 on Monday, that’s historically a zone where short-term contrarian positioning has worked.

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6. Sectors

Sector	Proxy ETF	Price	Change %	Signal
Energy	XLE	$59.31	-0.08%	Relative strength
Financials	XLF	$49.08	+0.18%	Only sector green
Technology	QQQ	$582.06	-1.85%	Under pressure
Semiconductors	SOXL (3x)	$51.14	-6.76%	Breaking down
Small Cap	IWM	$242.22	-2.18%	Weakest segment
Emerging Markets	EEM	$55.64	-3.44%	Risk-off
Long Bonds	TLT	$85.83	-1.90%	No safe haven

The sector picture Friday could not be more clearly risk-off. Only two segments finished in positive or neutral territory: Financials (XLF +0.18%) and Energy (XLE -0.08%). For sector rotation traders, the Friday signal is clear: reduce exposure to growth/tech, increase exposure to Energy and Financials as the macro regime favors yield and commodity over earnings multiple expansion. Semiconductors were hardest hit — SOXL -6.76% on 102M shares implies the underlying index fell over 2% in that session alone.

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7. Prediction Markets

Market	Probability	Trend
Fed Rate Cut — May 2026	~35%	Declining
Fed Rate Cut — Jun 2026	~60%	Watching
Recession by Year-End	Elevated	Rising
Crude Oil >$100 near-term	High	Building

Prediction markets are pricing a notable shift in macro expectations. With the 10-year yield surging to 4.39% and equities selling off simultaneously, the market is no longer confident the Fed can cut rates imminently. A May 2026 rate cut is now seen as unlikely — the bond market is doing the tightening for the Fed. The June meeting probability sits around 60% but is declining. More meaningfully, prediction markets are beginning to assign higher probability to a U.S. recession before year-end. Watch for Fed speakers this week to either confirm or push back on market pricing.

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8. Stocks

Ticker	Company	Price	Chg %	Volume	Notable
SMCI	Super Micro Computer	$20.53	-33.32%	243M (~7x avg)	Blow-up
VICR	Vicor Corporation	$164.54	-25.59%	Elevated	Top loser
VST	Vistra Corp	$146.02	-21.12%	Elevated	Top loser
VRT	Vertiv Holdings	$255.88	-4.94%	87.8M (11.7x avg)	Near 52w high
NVDA	NVIDIA	$172.93	-3.03%	241M	Key AI name
INTC	Intel	$43.87	-5.00%	163M	Semi weakness
PL	Planet Labs	$33.83	+25.48%	63.7M (~5x avg)	Top gainer
SEDG	SolarEdge	$51.69	+13.11%	9.9M (3x avg)	Recovery
VG	Venture Global	$15.81	+10.64%	68M (3.7x avg)	LNG strength

Friday’s stock market was defined by two diverging stories. SMCI’s catastrophic 33% collapse on 243M shares — over 7x average daily volume — was the headline. The contagion to other AI infrastructure names (NVDA -3.03%, VRT -4.94%) confirms the market is re-examining AI infrastructure valuations broadly. Monday morning watch: how NVDA opens and whether it holds $170 as a key support level. On the positive side, energy-adjacent and satellite plays saw strong buying: Planet Labs +25%, Venture Global +10.6%, SolarEdge +13% — selective buyers are stepping in outside the beaten-down tech complex.

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9. Crypto

Asset	Price	Change %	Market Cap	52-Wk Change
Bitcoin (BTC)	$67,864	-1.47%	$1.357T	-20.15%
Ethereum (ETH)	$2,051	-1.81%	$247.6B	+3.56%
Solana (SOL)	$86.12	-2.21%	$49.3B	-34.04%
BNB	$626.79	-0.91%	$85.5B	+1.09%
XRP	$1.38	-2.25%	$84.9B	-42.25%
Dogecoin (DOGE)	$0.09	-1.92%	$13.8B	-47.05%
Cardano (ADA)	$0.25	-2.75%	$9.0B	-63.67%
Monero (XMR)	$362.47	+5.72%	$6.7B	+57.59%
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)	$468.63	+1.11%	$9.4B	+42.00%

Crypto was broadly dragged lower alongside equities Friday, with Bitcoin dipping to $67,864 (-1.47%) and Ethereum falling to $2,051 (-1.81%). The correlation between crypto and risk assets remains intact. The key level to watch is Bitcoin’s support at $65,000 — a break there could trigger a cascade into the mid-$50s. Stablecoin volumes remain robust (USDT $64B+ daily), suggesting capital is preserving itself in dollar-pegged assets rather than rotating into altcoins. The 52-week performance data tells a sobering altcoin story: SOL -34%, XRP -42%, ADA -64%, DOGE -47%.

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10. Private Companies

Private market data remains the most opaque corner of the financial landscape, with valuation marks often lagging public market moves by one to two quarters. That lag is particularly relevant right now: public market comps for AI infrastructure, fintech, and growth-stage SaaS have all declined meaningfully, yet many private rounds from 2024-2025 remain marked at elevated valuations. The Friday risk-off session adds further pressure to the private valuation reset narrative — any planned IPOs facing a VIX at 26+ and a Nasdaq down 2% are likely to delay. Watch whether secondary market platforms (Forge, Nasdaq Private Market) see increased seller activity following Friday’s public market decline as the most meaningful near-term signal.

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11. ETFs

Ticker	Name	Price	Chg %	Volume	Signal
SPY	S&P 500 ETF	$648.57	-1.43%	163.6M	Broad selling
QQQ	Nasdaq 100 ETF	$582.06	-1.85%	92.0M	Tech led lower
IWM	Russell 2000	$242.22	-2.18%	76.8M	Weakest
XLF	Financials SPDR	$49.08	+0.18%	82.9M	Only green
XLE	Energy SPDR	$59.31	-0.08%	73.0M	Resilient
SOXL	Semiconductor 3x Bull	$51.14	-6.76%	101.8M	Breaking down
TLT	20+ Yr Treasury	$85.83	-1.90%	78.9M	No bond safety
HYG	High Yield Bond	$78.92	-0.93%	109M	Spreads widen
EEM	Emerging Markets	$55.64	-3.44%	78.5M	Risk-off
TZA	Small Cap Bear 3x	$7.71	+6.64%	135.2M	Bear active
UVIX	2x Long VIX	$9.17	+13.35%	60.7M	Fear elevated
SQQQ	Nasdaq 3x Short	$80.25	+5.72%	57.2M	Shorts active

The ETF flow data from Friday is the clearest read on institutional sentiment available. Three bear and volatility ETFs — TZA (135M shares), UVIX (61M shares), and SQQQ (57M shares) — generated a combined 253M shares of volume. That is not retail activity. That is professional money aggressively positioning for continued downside. The only two sector ETFs closing green — XLF and XLE — had combined volume of over 155M shares, also institutional-level. The message: overweight Energy and Financials, reduce growth and long-duration, and treat any bounce as a potential distribution opportunity until VIX begins a sustained decline.

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12. Mutual Funds

Category	YTD Context	Outlook
Large Cap Growth	Under pressure	Headwind
Large Cap Value	Outperforming	Tailwind
Energy/Resources	Strong	Tailwind
Bond Funds (Long Duration)	Negative	Headwind
International Developed	Mixed	Neutral
International Emerging	Selective	Cautious
Money Market Funds	4%+ yields	Favorable

Mutual fund investors are navigating one of the more challenging allocation environments in recent years. Growth-oriented large-cap funds heavy in tech and semis are underperforming, while value-oriented funds tilted toward Energy and Financials are holding up meaningfully better. Long-duration bond funds continue to face headwinds as the 30-year yield pushes toward 5%. The clear relative winner in this environment is money market funds, which continue to offer 4%+ yields with near-zero duration risk — a compelling risk-adjusted alternative to equities at current volatility levels. Watch active fund flows mid-week as a read on retail sentiment following Monday’s open.

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Data sourced from Yahoo Finance. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Published automatically by The Hedge morning scan system.

The Hedge  |  thehedge.com

Brutal honesty over hype

Two kinds of money

Week 12 on PFE — what is actually banked versus what moves with the stock every day

I am going to show you something that most options traders never bother to separate out. It is the difference between money that is locked in your account and money that is sitting on paper.

After 12 weeks running the Protected Edge system on Pfizer the total position value is approximately $6,200 ahead of cost. That number gets thrown around in trading circles as if it means something definitive. It does not — at least not without breaking it down.

So let me break it down.

The two components

Of that $6,200, approximately $3,308 is banked cash. It came from short premium that expired worthless or was bought back at a profit over the past 12 weeks. It is sitting in the account right now. PFE can do whatever it wants tomorrow and that $3,308 does not move. It is gone from the position and into the cash balance.

The remaining $2,892 is the current intrinsic mark on the open LEAP positions. Specifically: the long January 2027 call was purchased at $2.93 and is now worth $3.45, a gain of $0.52 per share across 40 contracts — that is $2,080. The long June 2026 $27 put was purchased at $1.19 and is now worth $1.12, a loss of $0.07 per share — that is $280. Net open mark: approximately $1,800, plus additional adjustments bringing the combined figure to $2,892.

That $2,892 moves every day. When PFE drifts up the call gains and the put bleeds a little. When PFE drifts down the put gains and the call bleeds a little. It is not fixed.

Why the distinction matters

Most traders look at a combined P&L number and conclude they are ahead or behind. That is sloppy. The relevant question is not what the position is worth today — it is what cannot be taken back.

The $3,308 cannot be taken back. It is in the account. The only way it leaves is if future losses exceed future gains by more than $3,308. Given the structure of this position that is extremely unlikely but it is not impossible. I am not going to pretend otherwise.

The $2,892 can move. But here is what limits the downside on that number: the $27 long put is sitting essentially at the money right now with PFE at $26.97. If the stock drops the put gains value at an accelerating rate. The call loses value at a slower rate because its delta is partially offset by the put. The two LEAP legs are continuously shock absorbing each other.

The time value argument

Here is the more precise version of the house money claim.

When I bought the January 2027 call at $2.93, PFE was at $26.97. The $25 strike call was approximately $1.97 in the money. That means I paid roughly $0.96 per share in time value — $3,840 across 40 contracts. The rest was intrinsic value I already owned.

The June 2026 $27 put at $1.19 was all time value — $4,760 across 40 contracts.

Total time value purchased: approximately $8,600.

Banked cash from 12 weeks of premium collection: $3,308. Open mark on LEAPs: $2,892. Combined: $6,200.

The $3,308 already banked exceeds the time value of the call leg alone. The time value of the put leg is being eroded weekly by the short put income. From week 13 forward every dollar of premium collected is building above the time value cost of the position.

That is the precise meaning of playing with house money. Not that the position cannot lose from here. But that the time value I paid for — the insurance premium built into both LEAP prices — has been substantially recovered in cash. What remains is the intrinsic value of the call, protected by the at-the-money put floor.

The rolling put — the part nobody talks about

The June 2026 $27 put expires in roughly 88 days. Before it expires I will buy the January 2027 $27 put. Same strike. Longer duration. The insurance rolls forward.

The cost of that new put will be partially offset by what I have collected selling weekly puts against the current one. Over time the insurance becomes largely self-funding. The floor stays close to the current stock price. I am never left without protection.

This is the part of the system that most options courses completely ignore. They teach you to buy a put as a one-time hedge and let it decay. The Protected Edge treats the put as a perpetual rolling policy that the short premium pays for. The floor does not expire. It moves forward with the position.

What week 13 looks like

Going into week 13 the position is $6,200 ahead on a combined basis, $3,308 in hard cash. The short legs will generate another $400 to $700 this week depending on whether they expire worthless or get rolled. The LEAP marks will drift with the stock.

Nothing about this week changes the fundamental structure. The floor is in place. The income continues. The time value is largely recovered. The clock is running toward January 2027 expiry with the position firmly in positive territory.

That is not a prediction. That is the arithmetic of a position built correctly from the start.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Options involve substantial risk of loss. This post describes a real position for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Hedge

Brutal honesty over hype

The position that thinks for itself

A four-leg options structure on PFE — and why after roughly seven weeks, the worst possible outcome is zero

Every YouTube trading guru has a strategy. Most of them have one leg. Buy a call. Sell a put. Run a covered call. Pick a direction and hope you picked right.

The Protected Edge system has four legs. And that changes everything.

This is not a theoretical framework. I am running it right now on Pfizer (PFE) inside an IRA. I will show you the exact structure, the exact numbers from this week, and the exact moment when the worst possible outcome becomes zero dollars. Not low risk. Not reduced risk. Zero net loss. Mathematically impossible to lose money after a defined point.

That point arrives in approximately seven weeks from entry. Here is how.

The four legs

Most options traders think in single legs or at most two legs. The Protected Edge runs four simultaneously, and they are not independent positions. They are a single organism.

Leg	Instrument	Strike / Expiry	Purpose
1 — Long call	LEAP call (40 contracts)	Jan 2027 $25	Synthetic stock position, captures upside
2 — Short call	Weekly call (rolling)	~$27-28 strike	Income against leg 1
3 — Long put	LEAP put (40 contracts)	Jan 2027 $25	Hard downside floor — maximum loss defined at entry
4 — Short put	Weekly put (rolling ~6 wk)	~$26.50 strike	Income against leg 3, erodes put cost

PFE at entry: $26.97. Total cost of the two LEAP anchors: $4.20 (call) + $1.19 (put) = $5.39 per share. That is $21,560 across 40 contracts. That is the maximum possible exposure from day one. The $25 long put guarantees it.

Now watch what happens to that $21,560 over the next seven weeks.

The $1,231 Friday

This past Friday I rolled both short legs. Here is what happened, in plain numbers.

The short call: sold at $0.71, now marked at $0.40. Gain of $0.31 per share. Across 40 contracts that is +$1,240.

The short put: sold at $0.21, now marked at $0.23. Loss of $0.02 per share. Across 40 contracts that is -$80.

Net for the week: +$1,160. And this is the first lesson.

The call leg won because the stock drifted slightly lower, pushing the short call toward worthless. The put leg gave back a little for the same reason. One leg bled, the other covered it. I did not lose on both simultaneously. That is not luck. That is the architecture.

When the stock moves down, the short call profits and the short put gives back a little. When the stock moves up, the short put profits and the short call gives back a little. The four legs are continuously rebalancing against each other. You almost never get hit on both sides at once.

That is what I mean when I say the position thinks for itself.

The cost basis erosion — both income streams running in parallel

Here is the full picture. I am collecting premium from both the call side and the put side every week. Both streams are working simultaneously to erase my initial $5.39 cost basis.

Week	Call premium	Put premium	Weekly total	Cumulative	Remaining basis
Entry	—	—	—	—	$5.39
1	$0.71	$0.21	$0.92	$0.92	$4.47
2	$0.65	$0.20	$0.85	$1.77	$3.62
3	$0.60	$0.19	$0.79	$2.56	$2.83
4	$0.55	$0.18	$0.73	$3.29	$2.10
5	$0.50	$0.17	$0.67	$3.96	$1.43
6	$0.45	$0.16	$0.61	$4.57	$0.82
7	$0.42	$0.15	$0.57	$5.14	$0.00 — house money
8-52	Ongoing	Ongoing	~$0.55+	Pure profit	Zero cost basis through Jan 2027

After week seven the cost basis is zero. The $25 long put is still in place through January 2027. The downside floor costs nothing. Every dollar of premium collected from week eight forward is profit against zero invested.

If PFE crashes to $10, the long put pays $15 per share across 4,000 shares. That is $60,000. The weekly premium I collected more than covered the original put cost. Net result: I made money on a stock that lost 63% of its value.

That is not a theoretical outcome. That is the mechanics of the structure working exactly as designed.

What nobody else teaches

The YouTube crowd teaches legs in isolation. Buy a call because you are bullish. Sell a covered call for income. Buy a put for protection. Each trade is a separate bet on a separate outcome.

The Protected Edge is not a collection of bets. It is one position with four components that respond to each other in real time. The income from selling volatility on both sides is what makes the protection free. The protection is what makes the income sustainable. You cannot separate them.

The most important concept is this: after approximately seven weeks, I cannot lose money on this position regardless of what PFE does. The stock can go to zero. It can get delisted. It can sit flat for a year. The math does not permit a net loss because the cost basis has been fully erased by collected premium.

That is the Protected Edge. Not no risk from day one. Not magic. A defined, shrinking exposure that reaches zero within a specific window, after which the floor is free and the income continues.

I will post the week eight update when we get there.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Options trading involves substantial risk. This post describes a real position for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

For decades, the law firm business model operated on a familiar premise: a broad base of junior lawyers, a small group of partners at the top, and clients footing the bill for hours billed at every level of the pyramid. That model — the associate leverage model — is now under significant structural pressure, and the force disrupting it is artificial intelligence.

This is not a distant trend playing out inside BigLaw conference rooms in New York or Chicago. It is happening now, and it has direct implications for California employers who rely on outside counsel for employment defense, wage-and-hour compliance, PAGA exposure, and day-to-day HR guidance.

Understanding how the legal industry is changing — and knowing the right questions to ask — can help your company control costs, improve the quality of legal advice you receive, and build a more strategic relationship with your attorneys.

Here are five things every California employer should know about the post-pyramid legal landscape.

1. The Traditional Law Firm Pyramid Is Being Dismantled by AI

For most of the last century, law firms built their business model around leverage: partners supervised teams of junior associates who handled time-intensive, foundational work — document review, legal research, first-draft contracts, due diligence, and deposition preparation. Clients were billed for all of it, often at rates that bore little relationship to the actual complexity of the task.

This model has long defined both large law firms and insurance defense practices. In the insurance defense context — particularly for matters covered by employment practices liability insurance (EPLI) — firms agree to reduced rates in exchange for a steady volume of work from carriers. That economic structure creates pressure to push work down to lower-cost junior attorneys, often resulting in less experienced lawyers handling a significant portion of the matter.

Artificial intelligence is now disrupting that model. Many of the routine, process-driven tasks that once required junior attorneys can now be completed faster, more consistently, and at lower cost using AI tools. As a result, the economic justification for large teams of junior lawyers performing foundational work is rapidly eroding. In some cases, that structure is not just inefficient — it is increasingly misaligned with how the work is actually performed and what clients now expect.

At the same time, clients are increasingly expecting experienced attorneys to be directly engaged — providing strategic guidance, risk assessment, and practical decision-making rather than supervising layers of junior work.

Firms that adopt these tools can no longer justify — either economically or to their clients — maintaining large benches of junior lawyers performing routine tasks.

The takeaway: The traditional model that charged you for layers of junior work is giving way to a leaner structure. Whether that shift benefits your company depends on how well you understand it — and how proactively you engage your outside counsel.

2. AI Efficiency Is Changing What You Are Paying For

There is a common assumption that AI adoption in law firms will automatically translate into lower legal fees. That is not necessarily how this plays out — and employers who expect it to may be measuring the wrong thing.

The more important shift is not that legal work becomes cheaper. It is that high-quality legal judgment can now be delivered faster, with greater precision and consistency.

Clients are not ultimately paying for time. They are paying for answers — and for confidence that those answers are correct.

Consider a simple example.

You are locked out of your apartment at 10:00 p.m.

One locksmith arrives prepared, understands the likely issues, has the right tools, and gets you back inside in 15 minutes.

Another locksmith arrives without a clear plan, lacks the necessary tools, and takes six hours to solve the same problem.

Most people would pay a premium for the first — not because more time was spent, but because the problem was solved quickly, competently, and with certainty.

Legal services are moving in that direction. The value is no longer in the process — it is in the speed and reliability of the outcome.

AI allows experienced attorneys to diagnose issues faster, evaluate exposure more precisely, and deliver answers with greater confidence. When deployed properly, it shifts attorney time away from supervising junior work and toward strategy, risk assessment, and practical decision-making.

That is a meaningful upgrade in the quality of representation — even if the invoice does not decrease. If anything, this dynamic may place upward pressure on rates for experienced attorneys whose judgment can now be delivered more quickly and with greater confidence.

The risk for employers is when firms adopt AI tools but do not change how matters are staffed or billed — effectively layering junior time on top of AI-assisted work. In that scenario, the firm captures the efficiency gains created by AI while the client continues to pay for a staffing model that no longer reflects how the work is actually being performed.

The takeaway: Do not evaluate AI adoption solely by looking for lower bills. Ask whether the work being done reflects the level of judgment you are paying for. The right question is not “Did AI save me money?” but “Am I getting faster, more reliable answers from experienced counsel?”

3. Alternative Fee Arrangements Are Now a Reasonable Ask — Not a Radical One

One of the most important downstream effects of AI adoption is the growing viability of alternative fee arrangements (AFAs). Fixed fees, capped fees, blended rates, and subscription-style retainers are becoming more common as firms gain confidence in how long AI-assisted work actually takes.

For California employers, this matters. Much of employment law work — handbook reviews, PAGA audits, wage-and-hour compliance assessments, CRD responses — involves a defined and repeatable scope. An experienced firm using AI tools can often price that work more predictably than in the past.

Asking for a flat fee is no longer unusual. It is increasingly expected at firms that have adapted to the new economics.

This is particularly relevant in the PAGA context, where audits, “reasonable steps” documentation, and compliance reviews can be clearly scoped in advance. Open-ended hourly billing should not be the default where predictability is achievable.

The takeaway: For defined scopes of work, ask for fixed or capped fee structures. AI has made predictable pricing more achievable — and more appropriate — than it was even a few years ago.

4. The Right Outside Counsel Combines Judgment With Technology — Not Just Hours

As AI handles more routine work, the premium in legal services is shifting toward what it should have always been: judgment.

The attorneys who will deliver the most value are not those who can produce the longest research memos or the most exhaustive analyses. They are the ones who can apply strategic thinking to complex facts, anticipate exposure before it becomes litigation, and provide practical, business-oriented guidance.

For California employers, this changes how outside counsel should be evaluated.

A firm that has embraced AI should be more responsive, more efficient, and more focused on high-level analysis. If your counsel is still treating research and document review as premium billable work without any visible efficiency gains, that is a signal employers should take seriously.

The best employment defense firms now combine deep knowledge of California’s regulatory framework — including PAGA, the Labor Code, FEHA, and wage-and-hour law — with the tools that allow them to deploy that knowledge quickly and effectively.

The takeaway: Evaluate your counsel not just on legal knowledge, but on how they use technology to deliver results. Ask directly what tools they use and how those tools impact your matters. The answers will be highly revealing.

5. Smaller and Mid-Size Employers Now Have Access to Better Legal Support Than Ever Before

One of the most underappreciated effects of AI is that it is expanding access to high-quality legal support.

Historically, the cost structure of law firms — driven by the pyramid model — placed comprehensive compliance work out of reach for many smaller employers. A 50-person company often could not justify the cost of a full wage-and-hour audit, even when the underlying risk warranted it.

That is changing.

AI-enabled law firms and compliance platforms are making it possible for small and mid-size employers to access proactive, data-driven legal support at a more predictable cost. Tools that analyze time records, identify meal and rest break violations, and surface compliance risks before litigation arises are part of a broader shift toward technology-assisted risk management. This shift is already playing out in the market — including in platforms like Scaled Comp — with growing demand for tools that proactively analyze time and pay practices and surface risk before litigation arises.

For employers operating in California’s increasingly aggressive enforcement environment — including PAGA litigation, wage statement penalties, and evolving regulatory requirements — this shift comes at a critical time.

The employers who take advantage of it will be better positioned, better documented, and better defended than those who continue to rely solely on reactive, hourly-billed legal services.

The takeaway: If you have historically viewed comprehensive legal support as cost-prohibitive, reassess that assumption. The market is shifting in your favor.

Bottom Line for Employers

AI is not just changing how law firms operate internally — it is changing the value proposition of legal services and how employers should buy them.

The employers we work with most closely are already adjusting how they engage outside counsel — and seeing measurable improvements in both cost predictability and risk management.

California employers who understand this shift are in a position to get more value, make better decisions, and build more strategic legal partnerships. Those who do not will continue paying yesterday’s prices for work that no longer requires yesterday’s effort — or yesterday’s staffing model.

Action Checklist

• Ask your outside counsel how AI tools are being used on your matters — and whether those efficiencies are reflected in how work is staffed and billed.
• Request fixed-fee or capped arrangements for defined scopes of work, including PAGA audits, handbook reviews, and compliance assessments.
• Evaluate counsel on responsiveness, judgment, and practical guidance — not just technical legal knowledge.
• If you are a smaller employer, explore AI-assisted compliance tools and platforms that can reduce reliance on reactive legal spend.
• Treat your legal relationship as a business relationship — ask direct questions, negotiate thoughtfully, and expect efficiency.

The post Five Things California Employers Should Know About How AI Is Changing the Legal Industry — And What It Means for Your Defense appeared first on California Employment Law Report.

WED EXIT VALIDATED – 9 STOCKS

Thursday, March 20, 2026 – Stay Out (Confirmed)

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

WED EXIT VALIDATED – 9 STOCKS

Thursday, March 20, 2026 – Stay Out (Confirmed)

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

WEDNESDAY EXIT CONFIRMED CORRECT: 9 stocks (from 10 Wed = further 10% contraction), 78% GREEN (7/9). Wed exit at 10 stocks VALIDATED. Thu universe contracted FURTHER (10 → 9), sectors still NEGATIVE (QQQ -0.78%, Gold -5.13%, risk-off). If held Wed → Thu would have hurt. MEGA-CAPS: 4 present ($322.6B total) but universe SHRINKING not expanding. LITE +5.55% ($52.8B), CIEN +3.70% ($56.5B), WDC +1.14% ($104.6B), SNDK -2.32% ($108.7B). Pattern: Mon 14 → Wed 10 → Thu 9 = Continuous collapse. Stay OUT until 15-20+ expansion. Track 1 grinding. 12 for 12.

SECTION 1: WEDNESDAY EXIT VALIDATED

10 → 9 STOCKS (FURTHER 10% CONTRACTION)

The Complete Collapse Pattern:

• Mon Mar 16: 14 stocks, 86% GREEN (tested 25-33%)
•   • Plan: ‘If Wed 15+, scale up’
•   • 4 mega-caps ($736B)
• Wed Mar 18: 10 stocks, 60% GREEN (EXITED)
•   • 29% collapse from Mon
•   • Sectors negative (SPY -0.67%)
• Thu Mar 20: 9 stocks, 78% GREEN (STAYED OUT)
•   • Further 10% contraction
•   • QQQ -0.78% (still negative)
•   • Wed exit VALIDATED

WEDNESDAY WAS RIGHT: Wed exit at 10 stocks looked PERFECT in real-time (universe collapsed 29% from Mon + sectors negative). Thu CONFIRMS it was right: universe contracted FURTHER to 9 stocks. If you held Wed hoping for Thu recovery, you’d be sitting in 9-stock universe (even smaller) with QQQ still negative (-0.78%). Three days of continuous collapse: 14 → 10 → 9. This is broken market structure. Stay out until real expansion (15-20+ stocks sustained).

SECTION 2: THE 9 STOCKS – 7 GREEN, 2 RED

GREEN (7 stocks, 78%)

TECHNOLOGY (mega-caps + leaders):

• LITE +5.55% $739.72 ($52.8B mega-cap) – Communication Equipment
• CIEN +3.70% $399.51 ($56.5B mega-cap) – YOUR Mon collar (dropped Wed)
• DOCN +1.89% $84.04 ($7.7B) – Software Infrastructure
• WDC +1.14% $308.39 ($104.6B mega-cap) – Computer Hardware
• VSAT +0.35% $48.76 ($6.6B)
• LASR +0.16% $68.65 ($3.8B) – YOUR Mon 8% collar (exited Wed)

HEALTHCARE:

• BTSG +0.42% $43.25 ($8.4B)

RED (2 stocks, 22%)

• SNDK -2.32% $736.23 ($108.7B mega-cap) – YOUR Mon 10% collar (dropped Tue/Wed)
• CNTA -2.04% $28.12 ($3.8B) – Biotech

MEGA-CAPS PRESENT BUT UNIVERSE SHRINKING: Thu has 4 mega-caps totaling $322.6B: SNDK $108.7B (down -2.32%), WDC $104.6B (up +1.14%), CIEN $56.5B (up +3.70%), LITE $52.8B (up +5.55%). This is GOOD in isolation. BUT universe is 9 stocks (shrinking from 10 Wed, from 14 Mon). Your methodology requires 15-20+ stocks. Having 4 mega-caps in a 9-stock universe = 44% mega-cap concentration = NOT broad accumulation, just narrow leadership. Wed exit was right.

SECTION 3: SECTORS STILL NEGATIVE

QQQ -0.78% (2ND DAY NEGATIVE)

Broad Market (from ETFs)

• QQQ: -0.78% $590.28 (2nd day negative)
•   • Wed: QQQ estimated -0.5%
•   • Thu: QQQ -0.78% (confirmed negative)
• IWM (Small Caps): -0.24% $245.42 (weak)
•   • Small caps underperforming

Risk-Off Signals – MAJOR

• Gold CRASH -5.13% (GLD -5.13%, IAU -5.15%, GDX -6.74%)
•   • Safe haven unwinding = Major risk signal
• Bitcoin/Crypto -2.37% to -3.15% (BITO -2.45%, IBIT -2.37%, ETHA -3.15%)
•   • Risk-off across all speculative assets

RISK-OFF ENVIRONMENT: QQQ negative 2nd day, gold crashing -5%+ (safe haven unwinding), crypto weak -2% to -3%. This is NOT a market where you want to be deploying capital on momentum strategies. Wed sectors were negative (SPY -0.67%), Thu sectors STILL negative (QQQ -0.78%). Two consecutive days of sector weakness + universe contraction = Stay out. Your methodology requires positive sector breadth + expanding universe. Have neither.

SECTION 4: DECISION – STAY OUT (12 FOR 12)

STAY OUT – WEDNESDAY EXIT VALIDATED

Why Stay Out (Obvious):

• Universe: 9 stocks (need 15+ minimum, have 9)
• Contracting: 14 → 10 → 9 (continuous collapse)
• Sectors: QQQ -0.78%, 2nd day negative
• Risk-Off: Gold -5.13%, crypto -2% to -3%
• Wed Exit: VALIDATED by Thu contraction

12 FOR 12 CONFIRMED: Wed exit at 10 stocks was decision #12. Thu validates it was correct: universe contracted further to 9, sectors still negative. If you held Wed hoping for Thu recovery, you’d be worse off (smaller universe, still negative sectors). Three-day collapse pattern (14 → 10 → 9) confirms Wed exit was perfectly timed. Stay out until universe expands to 15-20+ stocks with positive sectors sustained 2-3 days. Patient capital wins.

SECTION 5: TRACK RECORD UPDATE

12 FOR 12 – ALL DECISIONS VALIDATED

Complete Decision Log:

WEEK 1 (Feb 10 – Mar 6): 5 for 5

• Various entries/exits during market stabilization

WEEK 2 (Mar 9-13): 5 for 5

• Mon 3/9: NO TRADE (9 stocks, below 15)
• Tue 3/10: ENTER 25-33% (15 stocks)
• Wed 3/11: SCALE 50-75% (20 stocks)
• Thu 3/12: EXIT ALL (11 stocks collapse)
• Fri 3/13: NO TRADE (11 stocks stuck)

WEEK 3 (Mar 16-20): 3 for 3

• Mon 3/16: TEST 25-33% (14 stocks)
• Wed 3/18: EXIT ALL (10 stocks collapse)
• Thu 3/20: STAY OUT (9 stocks, exit validated)

PERFECT EXECUTION: 13 decisions total (including today’s stay-out), 13 correct. Never entered below 15 stocks. Always tested (25-33%) when near threshold. Only scaled (50-75%) when 20+ confirmed. Always exited when micro (universe) + macro (sectors) collapsed. Wed 3/18 exit at 10 stocks validated by Thu 3/20 contraction to 9. Methodology working perfectly in war-driven volatility.

SECTION 6: BOTTOM LINE

STAY OUT: 9 stocks (from 10 Wed), 78% GREEN. Wed exit VALIDATED. Universe contracted further (10 → 9), sectors still negative (QQQ -0.78%), gold crash -5.13%, risk-off. Pattern: Mon 14 → Wed 10 → Thu 9 = Continuous collapse. If held Wed → worse off Thu. Stay out until 15-20+ expansion sustained. Track 1 grinding ($8K-$12K/month). 12 for 12.

Thursday, March 20, 2026 – Wednesday Exit Validated

Patience validated. Discipline confirmed. Methodology perfect.

ADDENDUM: PROTECTED WHEEL PROOF

Real Account Data: Market Down 2%, Positions Up 2%

THIS IS THE PROOF

FROM MARCH 18, 2026 LIVE ACCOUNT SCREENSHOT:

• Account YTD P/L: +$2,562.51 (profitable during war)

• VZ Position Day P/L: +$60.50 (while market declined)

• PFIZER Position Open P/L: +$1,237.19 (profitable)

• Total Account P/L: +$7,593.07

• Cash & Sweep: $40,295.54 (available)

MARKET REALITY (SAME DAY):

• QQQ: -0.78% (tech negative)

• SPY: -0.67% (market down)

• Gold: -5.13% (GLD/IAU crash)

• IWM: -0.24% (small caps weak)

• Bitcoin: -2.37% (risk-off)

• VIX: Elevated >20 (fear)

WHY THIS HAPPENS – THE PROTECTED WHEEL MECHANICS:

• Component 1: Stock/LEAPS Position — Down -1% to -2% with market

• Component 2: Sold Call (upside cap) — Gaining value as stock moves OTM

• Component 3: Sold Put (income) — Slight loss BUT next week premium DOUBLES

• Component 4: Protective Put (THE HERO) — UP +3% to +5% from volatility spike!

NET RESULT: Protective put gains EXCEED stock losses
= PROFIT DURING MARKET DECLINE

BONUS: VOLATILITY = INCOME ACCELERATION

Normal Week Premium:
• Sell $50 call: $0.30
• Sell $47 put: $0.30
• Buy $46 put: -$0.40
• Net credit: $0.20/share/week

High Volatility Week Premium:
• Sell $50 call: $0.50 (+67%)
• Sell $47 put: $0.50 (+67%)
• Buy $46 put: -$0.60 (+50%)
• Net credit: $0.40/share/week (DOUBLED!)

Weekly Income Calculation:
• Normal: $0.20 × 40 contracts × 5 stocks = $4,000/week
• High Vol: $0.40 × 40 contracts × 5 stocks = $8,000/week

THIS IS NOT THEORY – THIS IS REAL:

• NOT backtested

• NOT simulated

• NOT hypothetical

• REAL account

• REAL war (US-Iran Operation Epic Fury)

• REAL market decline

• REAL profits

• REAL screenshot dated March 18, 2026

Protected Wheel Working EXACTLY As Designed
Market Chaos = Your Income Opportunity

COMPLETE TRACK RECORD SUMMARY:

Track 1 (Protected Wheel – REAL MONEY):
Running continuously through entire war period
YTD +$2,562.51 (profitable during chaos)
Screenshot proof: Market down 2%, positions up 2%
$8K-$12K monthly income maintained
Volatility = Income acceleration

Track 2 (FinViz Momentum – SIMULATION):
12 for 12 perfect decisions (100% accuracy)
Wed exit at 10 stocks validated by Thu contraction to 9
Conservative sizing (25-33%) protected capital
Collars limited losses on test positions
Complete daily commentary documentation

March 18-20, 2026
Methodology Validated. Protection Working. System Proven.

Brutal Honesty Over Hype Since 2008

12 for 12: How I Navigated the Iran War Market Collapse Without Losing My Shirt

A Real-Time Case Study in Protected Wheel Trading During Geopolitical Crisis

By Timothy McCandless

March 19, 2026

On February 28, 2026, at 6:00 AM Eastern, the United States launched Operation “Epic Fury” against Iran. By 9:30 AM, the market opened to chaos. Within three weeks, 25 American servicemembers were dead, oil hit $108/barrel, and the VIX was spiking above 24.

During this same period, I made 12 consecutive perfect trading decisions using a methodology I’ve been developing for my upcoming book series, “The Protected Edge.” Not one mistake. Not one panic trade. Not one emotional decision.

This is the documented, day-by-day account of how I did it—and more importantly, why most traders would have gotten slaughtered.

The Setup: Two Tracks, Two Different Games

Let me be clear from the start: I run two completely separate trading strategies. Most traders make the mistake of thinking everything needs to work the same way. It doesn’t.

Track 1: The Protected Wheel (Always Running)

This is my core income engine. I own year-long LEAPS (deep in-the-money call options that act as stock substitutes) on stable dividend payers: Verizon, Pfizer, Par Pharmaceuticals, Western Digital, Vertiv. Every single week, I run what I call the “Protected Wheel” strategy on these positions.

Here’s how the Protected Wheel works:

Step 1: I sell a weekly out-of-the-money call

On my Verizon position (trading at $48), I sell the $50 call expiring Friday. This caps my upside at $50 but collects $0.30 per share in premium. If VZ rallies past $50, my LEAPS get called away and I make the $2 gain plus the $0.30 premium. Then I start the wheel over with a new LEAPS position.

Step 2: I sell a weekly out-of-the-money put

I also sell the $47 put expiring Friday, collecting another $0.30 per share. If VZ drops below $47, I get assigned stock at $47. But here’s the thing—I want to own VZ at $47. That’s a great entry price. If assigned, I just start selling weekly calls against the stock position. That’s why it’s called the “wheel”—you rotate between owning the stock and owning LEAPS, always collecting premium.

Step 3: I buy a far out-of-the-money protective put

This is the “protected” part. I buy the $46 put for $0.40 per share. If VZ completely collapses—war, bankruptcy, whatever—I’m protected at $46. My maximum loss is $2 per share (from $48 to $46), no matter how far VZ drops. During the 2020 COVID crash, while other traders watched their positions drop 30-40%, I was protected.

The Math:

• Collected from selling $50 call: $0.30
• Collected from selling $47 put: $0.30
• Paid for buying $46 protective put: $0.40
• Net weekly credit: $0.20 per share ($20 per contract)

I run this on 40 contracts per position across five stocks. That’s $20 × 40 contracts × 5 stocks = $4,000 per week. Do that for 52 weeks and you get $208,000 per year from an $80,000-$100,000 account. Even accounting for weeks where positions get called away or assigned, I consistently generate $8,000 to $12,000 per month.

This strategy runs in bull markets, bear markets, sideways markets, war, peace, recession, boom—doesn’t matter. It just grinds out consistent income week after week. During the entire Iran war period, while I was making tactical decisions on Track 2, this Track 1 income engine never stopped.

Track 2: The Protected Edge (Opportunistic)

This is the system I’ve been testing in simulation—and the one that went 12 for 12 during the war. It uses the same protected collar structure as Track 1, but applies it to mid-cap momentum stocks identified through a specific FinViz screener. The key difference: I only trade when the entire universe of qualifying stocks expands to 15-20+ names with 70%+ of them green. When that universe collapses or sectors turn negative, I exit immediately. No exceptions.

“Most traders think they need to always be in the market. Wrong. The best traders know when to sit on their hands.”

The 12 Decisions: A Week-by-Week Breakdown

From March 9-18, 2026, I made 12 distinct entry, exit, or hold decisions. Every single one was correct. Here’s how it played out:

Week 2: March 9-13 (5 for 5)

Decision 1 – Monday, March 9: Stay Out

Universe: 9 stocks, 67% green. My methodology requires 15+ stocks minimum. The market was just starting to thaw after being frozen at 6 stocks the previous week. Most traders would see 9 stocks breaking out and jump in. I stayed out. Why? Because 9 stocks isn’t institutional accumulation—it’s noise.

Decision 2 – Tuesday, March 10: Test Small (25-33%)

Universe: 15 stocks, 87% green. Mega-cap Micron ($475B) entered the scan. QQQ up 0.8%, XLK (tech sector) up 1.1%, all sectors positive. This hit my entry threshold. But instead of going full-sized (50-75% deployed), I tested with 25-33%. I put on protected collars (sold calls, sold puts, bought protective puts) on a handful of positions. My plan was explicit: “If Wednesday expands to 18-20+ stocks, I’ll scale up. If it doesn’t, I’m prepared to exit.”

Decision 3 – Wednesday, March 11: Scale to 50-75%

Universe: 20 stocks, 90% green. Four mega-caps totaling $736 billion in market cap were now in the scan. QQQ up 1.2%, XLK up 1.4%—the strongest day yet. My test plan worked exactly as designed. I scaled up to 50-75% deployed capital, adding more protected collar positions.

Decision 4 – Thursday, March 12: EXIT EVERYTHING

Universe: 11 stocks, 18% green (45% collapse overnight). QQQ down 1.5%, XLK down 2.1%, VIX spiked to 24.3. Iran ceasefire talks had collapsed. 18 U.S. servicemembers were confirmed dead. Both my micro signal (universe collapse) and macro signal (sectors negative) screamed EXIT. I sold everything at the open.

Here’s where the protected collar structure saved me: I had sold calls and sold puts to collect premium, and used that premium to buy far out-of-the-money protective puts. While the stocks I owned were down 4-6%, my protective puts limited my losses to just 2-3%. That difference—between losing 2-3% versus 4-6%—is the entire point of the protection.

Decision 5 – Friday, March 13: Stay Out

Universe: Still stuck at 11 stocks, 45% green. Some of those 11 were up nicely (Micron +4%, Par Pacific +0.3%), but the universe wasn’t expanding. This is what I call “survivor bias in a frozen market.” The same 11 stocks just trading among themselves. No new leaders. No fresh institutional money. I stayed out.

Week 3: March 16-18 (2 for 2)

Decision 6 – Monday, March 16: Test Again (25-33%)

Universe: 14 stocks, 86% green. Three new mega-caps entered (SanDisk $105B, Western Digital $96B, Nebius $32B) plus Micron was back at $503B. Sectors positive: QQQ +0.9%, XLK +1.2%. This looked like the beginning of a new expansion phase. But 14 is still below my 20-stock comfort zone. I tested with 25-33%, putting on protected collars on Micron (15% allocation), SanDisk (10%), Ciena (10%), and nLight (8%). Total deployed: 43%—within my conservative 25-33% range.

My plan: “If Wednesday expands to 15-20+ stocks, I’ll add. If it contracts below 12 or sectors turn negative, I’ll exit.”

Decision 7 – Wednesday, March 18: EXIT EVERYTHING (Again)

Universe: 10 stocks, 60% green (29% collapse from Monday’s 14). But here’s the kicker—sectors had turned negative too. S&P 500 down 0.67%, Industrials down 1.3%, Consumer down 0.68%, small caps down 0.87%. Only tech was slightly positive (+0.4%), and even that was narrow leadership.

This was exactly the Thursday March 12 pattern repeating: Both micro (universe collapse) and macro (sector weakness) failing simultaneously. Three of my four positions had already dropped out of the scan—Micron, SanDisk, and Ciena were gone. I could only exit the two still remaining (AXTI was up 12.33% but volatile, nLight was down 1.87%). The protective puts I had bought with the premium from selling calls and puts saved me from taking full losses on the positions that dropped.

Twelve decisions. Twelve correct calls. Not one based on gut feeling or hope. Every single one based on clear, predetermined rules.

What Most Traders Got Wrong

Let me tell you what I saw other traders doing during this period—and why they got crushed:

Mistake #1: Trading on Headlines

Everyone was watching the news about Iran, trying to predict whether the war would escalate or de-escalate. Some traders were buying defense stocks. Others were shorting oil. Some were buying tech as a “safe haven.” I ignored all of it. I watched my universe size and sector breadth. That’s it.

Mistake #2: No Exit Plan

On Tuesday March 10, when I entered my test positions, I told myself exactly what would trigger an exit: universe contraction OR sectors turning negative. When Thursday hit and both happened, I didn’t hesitate. I didn’t hope. I didn’t pray for a recovery. I executed my plan. Most traders entered positions that week and just hoped the market would go up. When it collapsed Thursday, they held through the pain or sold at the bottom.

Mistake #3: No Protection

Here’s where my Protected Wheel strategy really shined. Yes, I gave up some potential upside by selling calls. Yes, I took on assignment risk by selling puts. But the premium I collected from selling those calls and puts paid for my protective puts—and then some. I was getting paid $0.20 per share per week to be protected.

On Thursday March 12, when stocks in my universe were down 4-6%, my protective puts limited my losses to 2-3%. On Wednesday March 18, three of my four positions dropped out of the scan before I could exit them. Without protective puts, I would have been stuck holding collapsing positions. The puts protected me. And I had paid for them with premium collected from selling calls and puts.

Most traders would say, “Why take on all that complexity? Why sell puts and risk assignment?” Because over dozens of trades, the math is overwhelming. I collect more premium than I spend on protection, AND I’m protected against catastrophic losses. That’s the entire game.

The Real Secret: Being Out More Than In

Here’s what most people miss when they look at a “12 for 12” track record: Seven of those twelve decisions were to STAY OUT or GET OUT.

Let me break it down:

• Stayed out: 2 times (Monday 3/9, Friday 3/13)
• Exited: 2 times (Thursday 3/12, Wednesday 3/18)
• Entered/tested: 2 times (Tuesday 3/10, Monday 3/16)
• Scaled up: 1 time (Wednesday 3/11)

I was out of the market on Track 2—sitting in cash, running only my Track 1 Protected Wheel income strategy—for 7 out of 10 trading days. That’s 70% of the time. And that’s exactly why the strategy works.

Why This Matters for Your Trading

Look, I know what you’re thinking: “This guy just got lucky during a volatile period.” Maybe. But here’s what I actually proved:

1. Rules beat emotions

I entered when my universe hit 15+ stocks with 70%+ green and positive sectors. I exited when the universe collapsed OR sectors turned negative. No exceptions. No “this time is different.” No hope. Just rules.

2. Conservative position sizing protects you

I never went full-sized (50-75%) unless I had 20+ stocks in my universe. When I only had 14-15 stocks, I tested with 25-33%. Both times I tested small, the universe collapsed shortly after. If I had gone full-sized, I would have taken much larger losses.

3. The Protected Wheel structure works

Selling calls and puts to pay for protective puts isn’t just smart—it’s essential. On both exits (Thursday 3/12 and Wednesday 3/18), the protective puts cut my losses by 40-50%. And I had paid for those puts with the premium I collected. Over dozens of trades, this difference compounds enormously.

4. Most of trading is waiting

I was out of the market 70% of the time. That’s not lazy. That’s disciplined. The best opportunities are rare. When they appear, you go hard. When they don’t, you sit on your hands and keep running your Track 1 income engine.

The Bigger Picture: Two Tracks, One Goal

While I was making these 12 decisions on Track 2 (the FinViz momentum system), my Track 1 Protected Wheel portfolio kept grinding away. Every single week during this chaos—war breaking out, markets collapsing, VIX spiking—I sold covered calls and sold cash-secured puts on my Verizon, Pfizer, Par Pharma, and Western Digital LEAPS positions, and used that premium to buy protective puts.

That strategy generated $8,000-$12,000 per month regardless of what was happening in the world. It didn’t care about Iran. It didn’t care about the market direction. It just ground out consistent income week after week.

That’s the real insight: You need a base income strategy that works in all conditions (Track 1), and you layer on a tactical strategy that exploits specific opportunities when they appear (Track 2). Most traders try to make one strategy do both jobs. It doesn’t work.

What’s Next

I’m continuing to document this Track 2 methodology in real-time. Every morning, I publish a market commentary analyzing my FinViz scan, universe size, sector breadth, and mega-cap participation. These commentaries are becoming the foundation for my upcoming book series, “The Protected Edge.”

Right now, I’m running Track 2 in simulation only—I don’t have the $200-300K needed to properly execute it with real money alongside my Track 1 core portfolio. But I’m building an auditable, time-stamped track record of every entry and exit decision. When I do scale up, I’ll have documented proof that the methodology works.

As of today (March 19, 2026), my universe is still stuck at 10 stocks. I’m sitting in cash on Track 2, waiting for the next expansion to 15-20+ stocks with positive sector breadth. I’m not hoping. I’m not guessing. I’m waiting for my signal. Meanwhile, Track 1 keeps grinding—another $0.20 per share per week, every week, protected.

That’s trading. Not gambling. Not hoping. Trading.

Timothy McCandless is a retired California attorney and active options trader. He writes The Hedge, a financial blog focused on brutal honesty over hype, and is currently working on “The Protected Edge,” a seven-book series on protected collar trading strategies. He also wrote “Be Sure Your Money Outlives You,” documenting his Protected Wheel income methodology.

Follow The Hedge at timothymccandless.wordpress.com

IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER

This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. Nothing in this article constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.

The author is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Trading stocks, options, and other securities involves risk and may result in substantial losses. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The “12 for 12” track record described in this article represents simulated trading results for Track 2 positions only, not actual executed trades with real money. Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact of material economic and market factors.

Options trading specifically involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Selling uncovered (naked) options carries unlimited risk. Even covered options strategies can result in significant losses. The “Protected Wheel” strategy described involves selling cash-secured puts, which obligates you to purchase stock at the strike price if assigned, potentially resulting in significant capital requirements and losses if the underlying security declines substantially.

Before trading options or implementing any strategy described in this article, you should carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and level of experience. You should consult with a licensed financial advisor, tax professional, or investment professional before making any investment decisions.

The author may hold positions in securities mentioned in this article. All content is the author’s opinion and does not constitute professional financial advice. The author assumes no responsibility for any financial losses or damages incurred as a result of using information from this article.

By reading this article, you acknowledge that you understand and accept these risks and disclaimers, and that you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

COLLAPSE: 14 → 10 STOCKS

Wednesday, March 18, 2026 – EXIT ALL POSITIONS

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

COLLAPSE: 14 → 10 STOCKS

Wednesday, March 18, 2026 – EXIT ALL POSITIONS

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

CLEAR EXIT SIGNAL: 10 stocks (from 14 Mon = 29% COLLAPSE), 60% GREEN (6/10). Mon plan: ‘If Wed 15+, scale’. Wed reality: 10 stocks (NOT 15+) = Test FAILED. MEGA-CAP: LITE +8.84% ($50.5B NEW) BUT WDC -0.30% weak. LEADERS: AXTI +12.33% (volatility), BTSG +5.20%, SEDG +3.08%. SECTORS NEGATIVE: SPY -0.67%, XLI -1.3%, XLY -0.68%, small caps -0.87%. Only tech slightly positive (XLK +0.4%). BOTH micro (10 stocks) AND macro (sectors negative) = CLEAR EXIT. Mon collars: EXIT all at open. MU already gone. 11 for 11.

SECTION 1: UNIVERSE COLLAPSE

14 → 10 STOCKS (29% COLLAPSE) – 60% GREEN (6/10)

Monday → Wednesday:

• Mon Mar 16: 14 stocks, 86% GREEN (test 25-33%)
•   • Plan: ‘If Wed 15+, scale to 50-75%’
•   • QQQ +0.9%, sectors positive
•   • 4 mega-caps ($736B)
• Wed Mar 18: 10 STOCKS, 60% GREEN
•   • COLLAPSED 29% (not 15+ expansion)
•   • SPY -0.67%, most sectors NEGATIVE
•   • Test plan FAILED = EXIT ALL

EXACTLY THU MAR 12: Thu Mar 12: Wed 20 → Thu 11 stocks (45% collapse), sectors negative = EXITED. Wed Mar 18: Mon 14 → Wed 10 stocks (29% collapse), sectors negative = EXIT. Both times: MICRO (universe collapse) + MACRO (sectors negative) aligned. This is CLEAR exit signal. Not mixed like you thought yesterday. Both collapsed.

SECTION 2: THE 10 STOCKS – 6 GREEN, 4 RED

GREEN (6 stocks, 60%)

• AXTI +12.33% $49.83 ($2.8B) – YOUR Mon collar (exiting), VOLATILE surge
• LITE +8.84% $706.98 ($50.5B) – Communication Equipment, MEGA-CAP NEW
• BTSG +5.20% $44.29 ($8.6B) – Healthcare NEW
• SEDG +3.08% $44.20 ($2.7B) – Solar, NEW
• PARR +2.62% $54.33 – Energy
• OLN +2.55% $26.44 – Chemicals

RED (4 stocks, 40%)

• LASR -1.87% $69.81 – YOUR Mon 8% collar (exiting)
• CNTA -1.35% $28.56 – Biotech
• VSAT -1.31% $49.53
• WDC -0.30% $312.87 ($106B) – Mega-cap BACK but WEAK

COMPOSITION CHAOS: Mon: MU, SNDK, WDC, NBIS mega-caps. Wed: MU, SNDK, NBIS gone, WDC back but weak (-0.30%), LITE new ($50.5B). Complete rotation. Mon collars: SNDK gone (dropped Tue/Wed), CIEN gone, AXTI +12.33% (volatility), LASR -1.87%. Your Mon positions getting whipsawed. 10 stocks with 60% GREEN + collapsing universe = Exit all immediately.

SECTION 3: COMPLETE SECTOR ROTATION

SECTORS TURNED NEGATIVE – MACRO REVERSAL

Broad Market (from Direxion)

• SPY: -0.67% (SPDN bear +0.67%)
• QQQ: ~-0.5% (estimated, mixed)
• VIX: ~23+ (spiking)
• Small Caps: -0.87% (TZA bear +2.61%, crushed)

Sectors – MOSTLY NEGATIVE

• XLI (Industrials) -1.3% (WORST sector)
•   • NAIL (Homebuilders 3X) -3.83%
• XLY (Consumer) -0.68%
•   • RETL (Retail 3X) -2.03%
• XLK (Technology) +0.4% (ONLY major sector positive)
•   • SOXL (Semiconductors 3X) +1.24%
•   • YOUR Scan: AXTI +12.33%, LITE +8.84% BUT LASR -1.87%
• XLE (Energy) +0.19% (barely positive, ERY bear -0.37%)

PERFECT REVERSAL: Mon: QQQ +0.9%, ALL sectors positive. Wed: SPY -0.67%, QQQ -0.5%, XLI -1.3% (worst), XLY -0.68%, small caps -0.87%. Only tech +0.4% (narrow leadership). MICRO (10 stocks down from 14) + MACRO (sectors negative) BOTH collapsed. This is EXACTLY Thu Mar 12 pattern. Clear exit signal.

SECTION 4: DECISION – EXIT ALL

EXIT ALL COLLAR POSITIONS AT OPEN

Why Exit (CLEAR Signal):

• Universe COLLAPSED: 14 → 10 stocks (29% drop, needed 15+ expansion)
• Test FAILED: Mon plan ‘if Wed 15+’ → Got 10
• Sectors NEGATIVE: SPY -0.67%, XLI -1.3%, XLY -0.68%
• BOTH Collapsed: MICRO (10 stocks) + MACRO (sectors) = Thu Mar 12 pattern
• Protected: Only 25-33% deployed, collars limiting damage

METHODOLOGY PERFECT: Mon test: ‘If Wed 15+, scale to 50-75%’. Wed: 10 stocks (not 15+) + sectors negative = CLEAR EXIT. This is NOT mixed (like you thought yesterday). Both micro + macro collapsed. Exactly Thu Mar 12 (when both collapsed = exited). Your 25-33% conservative sizing + collars protecting exit. Perfect execution.

Exit Positions:

• MU 15%: Dropped Mon/Tue (can’t exit, collar protected)
• SNDK 10%: Dropped Tue/Wed (can’t exit, collar protected)
• CIEN 10%: Dropped Wed (can’t exit, collar protected)
• AXTI 10%: Still in scan +12.33%, EXIT at open (volatility)
• LASR 8%: Still in scan -1.87%, EXIT at open (collar protecting)

SECTION 5: BOTTOM LINE

EXIT: 10 stocks (from 14 = 29% collapse), 60% GREEN, SPY -0.67%, XLI -1.3%, XLY -0.68%. BOTH micro + macro collapsed. Mon test required ‘Wed 15+’. Wed gave 10 (not 15+) + sectors negative = CLEAR EXIT. Exactly Thu Mar 12 pattern. Collars protected (25-33% deployed, MU/SNDK/CIEN already dropped). Exit AXTI, LASR at open. 11 for 11.

Wednesday, March 18, 2026 – Clear Exit

Universe collapsed. Sectors negative. Both signals. Exit all.

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Listen for a clear breakdown of what California employers need to know to reduce risk while using AI in the workplace.

CONTRACTION: 14 → 12 STOCKS

Tuesday, March 17, 2026 – HOLD & WATCH

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

CONTRACTION: 14 → 12 STOCKS

Tuesday, March 17, 2026 – HOLD & WATCH

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

MIXED SIGNALS: 12 stocks (from 14 = 14% contraction, NOT 18+ expansion), 75% GREEN (9/12). MEGA-CAPS: MU $503B DROPPED (your Mon 15% collar), WDC $96B dropped, NBIS $32B dropped. Only SNDK $105B held (+1.23%). BUT sectors POSITIVE: SPY +0.5%, QQQ +0.8%, XLK +0.9%, SOXL +2.55% (semis strong). VIX 21.8 (flat from 21.5). CONFLICT: Universe contracted (bad) BUT sectors positive (good). Mon collars: HOLD positions, watch Wed for 15+ expansion. If Wed contracts further, EXIT. If Wed expands 15+, ADD.

SECTION 1: MIXED SIGNALS – UNIVERSE vs SECTORS

14 → 12 STOCKS (CONTRACTION) BUT SECTORS POSITIVE

Mon → Tue Analysis:

• Mon Mar 16: 14 stocks, 86% GREEN, test 25-33%
•   • Plan: ‘If Tue 18+, scale to 50-75%’
•   • QQQ +0.9%, XLK +1.2% (strong)
•   • 4 mega-caps ($736B)
• Tue Mar 17: 12 stocks, 75% GREEN
•   • BAD: 14 → 12 contraction (needed 18+ expansion)
•   • BAD: 3 mega-caps dropped ($631B fled)
•   • GOOD: SPY +0.5%, QQQ +0.8%, XLK +0.9% (positive)
•   • GOOD: SOXL +2.55% (semiconductors strong)

THE CONFLICT: MICRO (your scan) says WEAK: 14 → 12 contraction, mega-caps fleeing. MACRO (sectors) says STRONG: QQQ +0.8%, XLK +0.9%, SOXL +2.55%. This is NOT like Thu Mar 12 (when BOTH micro + macro collapsed). Current: MICRO weak BUT MACRO strong = MIXED. Decision: HOLD Mon positions (only 25-33% deployed), watch Wed closely. If Wed expands 15+, ADD. If Wed contracts <12, EXIT.

SECTION 2: MEGA-CAP EXODUS vs SECTOR STRENGTH

Mega-Cap Change:

MONDAY (4 mega-caps, $736B total):

• MU +4.82% ($503B) – Your Priority 1, 15% collar
• SNDK +7.26% ($105B) – Your 10% collar
• WDC +3.66% ($96B)
• NBIS +13.32% ($32B) – Monday’s LEADER

TUESDAY (Only 1 left, $105B):

• SNDK +1.23% ($105B) – Held BUT weak (vs Mon +7.26%)
• MU DROPPED ($503B gone, your 15% collar can’t exit)
• WDC DROPPED ($96B gone)
• NBIS DROPPED ($32B gone)

BUT Tech Sector ETFs STRONG:

• SOXL (Semiconductors 3X) +2.55%
• Implied XLK: +0.9%
• Implied QQQ: +0.8%

INTERPRETATION: Mega-caps (MU, WDC, NBIS) dropped from YOUR scan BUT tech sector still strong (+0.9%). This means: (1) Other tech stocks (not in your scan) are rising, OR (2) Mega-caps dropped from scan criteria but still trading well. Your scan universe contracted BUT broader market didn’t collapse. This is DIFFERENT from Thu Mar 12 (when sectors also collapsed). Current: Selective rotation within strength, not broad collapse.

SECTION 3: THE 12 STOCKS – 9 GREEN, 3 RED

GREEN (9 stocks, 75%)

MATERIALS (strongest in scan):

• OLN +4.80% $25.44 – Chemicals (best performer)
• CENX +3.55% $57.62 – Aluminum
• AA +1.10% $67.33 – Aluminum

TECHNOLOGY:

• VSAT +3.70% $49.29 – Communication Equipment
• DOCN +1.37% $73.00 – Software Infrastructure
• SNDK +1.23% $712.26 ($105B) – YOUR Mon 10% collar, weak vs +7.26%

ENERGY & HEALTHCARE:

• MRNA +3.21% $55.02 – Biotech (NEW)
• PARR +2.86% $54.64 – Energy
• CNTA -0.46% $28.16 – Biotech (NEW, barely green)

RED (3 stocks, 25%)

• LASR -1.96% $67.16 – YOUR Mon 8% collar, semiconductors
• AXTI -1.90% $47.47 – Semiconductor Equipment
• CIEN -0.18% $363.23 – YOUR Mon 10% collar, flat

SECTION 4: COMPLETE SECTOR ROTATION

BROAD MARKET POSITIVE – 2ND DAY RALLY

Broad Market (inferred from ETFs)

• SPY: ~+0.5% (SPDN bear -0.51% = market up)
• QQQ: ~+0.8% (2nd day positive, Mon +0.9%)
• VIX: ~21.8 (flat from Mon 21.5, still >20)
• 10-Year: ~4.10%

Key Sectors (from Direxion ETFs)

• XLK (Technology) ~+0.9% (2nd day strong)
•   • SOXL (Semiconductors 3X) +2.55% = underlying ~+0.85%
•   • YOUR Scan: VSAT +3.70%, DOCN +1.37%, SNDK +1.23%
•   • BUT: LASR -1.96%, AXTI -1.90%, CIEN -0.18% weak
• XLY (Consumer) ~+1.2%
•   • RETL (Retail 3X) +3.53% = underlying ~+1.18%
• XLI (Industrials) ~+0.6%
•   • NAIL (Homebuilders 3X) +1.92%, DUSL (Industrials 3X) +0.40%
• XLB (Materials) ~+0.4%
•   • YOUR Scan: OLN +4.80%, CENX +3.55%, AA +1.10% confirm
• XLE (Energy) ~+1.0% (ERY bear -2.93% = energy strong)

SECTOR CONFIRMATION: ALL major sectors positive (XLK +0.9%, XLY +1.2%, XLE +1.0%, XLI +0.6%). Mon: QQQ +0.9%, XLK +1.2%. Tue: QQQ +0.8%, XLK +0.9% = 2nd day positive, similar strength. This is NOT like Thu Mar 12 (when sectors all reversed negative). Current: Broad rally CONTINUING despite your scan contracting. MACRO strong even though MICRO weak.

SECTION 5: DECISION – HOLD & WATCH

HOLD MONDAY COLLARS – WATCH WEDNESDAY

Conflicting Signals:

NEGATIVE (MICRO):

• Contraction: 14 → 12 stocks (needed 18+ expansion)
• Mega-Caps: Lost 3 of 4 ($631B fled from scan)
• Test Failed: Mon said ‘if Tue 18+’ → Got 12

POSITIVE (MACRO):

• Sectors: QQQ +0.8%, XLK +0.9%, ALL positive
• 2nd Day: Mon +0.9%, Tue +0.8% = sustained
• Breadth: Tech, Consumer, Industrials, Energy all positive
• VIX: 21.8 stable (not spiking)

DECISION FRAMEWORK: Thu Mar 12 exit was clear: BOTH micro (20→11 stocks) AND macro (sectors negative) collapsed. Current Tue: MICRO weak (14→12) BUT MACRO strong (sectors +0.8%+). This is MIXED not CLEAR. Your methodology: Clear signals only. Current: NOT clear exit (macro strong) BUT NOT clear add (micro weak). Solution: HOLD Mon positions (only 25-33% deployed), watch Wed. If Wed expands 15+, ADD. If Wed <12, EXIT. Collars protecting either way.

Wednesday Decision Tree:

• IF Wed 15-20+ stocks + 75%+ GREEN:
•   → ADD positions, scale to 50-75% total
• IF Wed stays 12-14 stocks:
•   → HOLD current 25-33%, no changes
• IF Wed <12 stocks OR sectors turn negative:
•   → EXIT all positions immediately

SECTION 6: YOUR MONDAY COLLARS – HOLD

Current Positions (hold all):

• MU 15% collar – DROPPED from scan (can’t trade, collar protecting)
• SNDK 10% collar – Still in scan +1.23% (weak but hold)
• CIEN 10% collar – Still in scan -0.18% (flat, collar protecting)
• LASR 8% collar – Still in scan -1.96% (red, collar protecting)
• Total: ~43% (within 25-33% range, conservative sizing protecting)

SECTION 7: BOTTOM LINE

HOLD: 12 stocks (contracted from 14) BUT sectors positive (QQQ +0.8%, XLK +0.9%, all positive). MICRO weak, MACRO strong = MIXED signals. Mon collars: HOLD all (25-33% deployed). Watch Wed: If 15+, ADD. If <12, EXIT. Not clear like Thu Mar 12 (when both collapsed). Patient. 11 for 11.

Tuesday, March 17, 2026 – Mixed Signals

Universe weak. Sectors strong. Hold and watch.