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The FBI Seized a CEO’s AI Chats — And Four More Reasons California Employers Can’t Ignore AI Any Longer

This past week’s Zaller Law Group masterclass on AI in the Workplace walked California employers through what they need to know right now about AI in the workplace. The conversation covered everything from a federal court ruling on AI and attorney-client privilege to California’s new automated hiring regulations to practical tools employers can start using today.

Here is a recap of five key takeaways every California employer, CEO, business owner, HR professional, and in-house counsel should be thinking about on how AI will impact their business:

1. The AI Revolution Is Happening Right Now — And the Window to Adapt Is Closing

We opened the masterclass with a reference to an article by Matt Schumer, CEO of Otherside AI, that has gone viral in the AI community. Schumer has spent six years building in the AI space, and his message is blunt: the gap between what insiders know is coming and what the general public understands has gotten too wide to keep sugar coating.

His comparison that stuck with me is this: we’re in a moment similar to February 2020, right before COVID. Most people weren’t paying attention, and then three weeks later the entire world changed. The pace of AI development is staggering. In 2022, AI couldn’t do basic math. In 2023, it passed the bar exam. By 2024, it was writing software and explaining graduate-level science. In late 2025, some of the best engineers in the world said they were handing over most of their coding work to AI. And the CEO of Anthropic has publicly predicted AI will eliminate 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs within one to five years.

Even if you think those predictions are overblown, here’s what matters for employers right now: if AI stopped developing today, it has already changed the competitive landscape. Businesses that are leaning into it are operating more efficiently, making better decisions, and gaining advantages over those that aren’t. The window to get ahead of this curve is closing fast.

What to do: Sign up for paid AI subscriptions—Claude Pro, ChatGPT Plus, or the $100 Pro plans if your budget allows. The difference between free and paid models is dramatic. Stop treating AI like a search engine. Push it with real business tasks you don’t think it can handle, and you’ll be surprised by what comes back. And build the habit of staying current—this technology is changing week to week.

2. Your AI Conversations Are Not Confidential — A Federal Court Just Made That Clear

One of the most important legal developments we covered is U.S. v. Heppner, a federal case out of New York that is making its way around the legal community. A CEO charged with fraud was using Claude to research his own criminal case. The FBI seized his computer, and when prosecutors sought access to his AI chat history, his attorneys objected, arguing the conversations were protected by attorney-client privilege.

The court disagreed. Chatting with an AI platform about legal issues does not create a confidential attorney-client relationship, and the content is not privileged. Users should treat AI like any other research tool—no different from typing a legal question into Google or drafting notes in a Word document. If it’s not a communication with your actual attorney, it’s not privileged.

This has significant implications for employers. When your HR team is using ChatGPT to figure out how to handle a performance issue, those conversations could be obtained by an opposing party in discovery. It feels private when you’re chatting with AI, but it isn’t.

There is a narrow opening the court left: if an attorney directs a client to perform AI research as part of the attorney’s work product, there could be an argument for protection. But that’s untested and narrow. On the flip side, AI chat history could also help justify employment decisions. If an HR professional used AI to research how to coach an underperforming employee—focusing on business reasons and best practices—that could be evidence the employer was focused on legitimate, non-discriminatory reasons.

While some AI software provides “incognito” modes, this does not make the conversations private, and there still is likely a record of that chat.  AI providers may still retain data for 30 days or longer, even when incognito is enabled. Much like a Google search, that data is going to be out there somewhere.

What to do: Treat AI conversations like any other company document—assume they are discoverable. If you’re handling truly confidential information, use a private system like Microsoft Copilot tied to your organization’s secure environment, not a public-facing platform. And develop an AI usage policy that makes clear to employees what can and cannot go into public AI systems.

3. California’s AI Hiring Regulations Are Already Here — And More Are Likely Coming

California already has regulations on the books governing AI in hiring. In October 2025, the Civil Rights Council issued regulations explaining that employers are liable for discrimination arising from automated decision systems (ADS) used in the hiring process.

The core principle is straightforward: existing discrimination laws apply when you use AI in hiring. You cannot deflect liability by saying “the software did it.” If your AI screening tool filters out candidates based on a protected characteristic—race, gender, age, disability, national origin—you are responsible, not the vendor. The definition of ADS is broad and covers many different tools that employers can use in the hiring process, such as any software that prioritizes, ranks, or filters candidates.

And the Legislature is potentially adding new AI-employment related laws in 2026. SB 947 proposes additional requirements for automated decision systems. SB 951 would require employers who displace an employee because of technology adoption to provide at least 90 days’ advance notice. These bills are making their way through the California State Legislature right now.

There is also a federal issue. The Trump administration has signaled interest in preempting state-level AI regulation to prevent a patchwork of 50 different state frameworks, which the AI industry strongly opposes. Whether federal preemption actually happens remains to be seen, but California employers need to comply with what’s on the books today.

What to do: Audit your hiring process now. Identify every tool that touches candidate screening, ranking, or selection—including applicant tracking systems and resume-screening software. Build transparency clauses into your vendor contracts. And most importantly, maintain a human in the loop for all hiring decisions. Don’t abdicate decision-making to software.

4. Your Data Is Your Greatest Asset — Use It Before Opposing Counsel Does

California employers don’t have many advantages when it comes to employment litigation, but here’s one they often overlook: their own data. Your time records, payroll data, break logs, and scheduling records are not just administrative paperwork—they’re evidence that can either protect you or sink you in a PAGA case, class action, or wage and hour claim.

We walked the masterclass through Scaled Comp, a software tool we developed out of a real litigation pain point. For years, when a PAGA case or class action came in, our paralegals and support staff would spend weeks manually analyzing time records—often across scattered formats like PDFs, CSVs, and sometimes even paper records going back years. We’d take a sample and extrapolate. That’s how most firms still do it.

Scaled Comp can now review the time records and produce a comprehensive analysis in days rather than weeks. It reproduces time entries in easy-to-read format, flags shifts with potential meal and rest break issues, and provides business intelligence into employer’s wage and hour compliance.

But the bigger point for employers is this: after the 2024 PAGA reform, employers who can demonstrate they took “reasonable steps” to comply can cap penalties at 15% of the maximum. One of the most powerful ways to show “reasonable steps” is proactive time record auditing. If you’re running monthly or quarterly meal break audits, and a PAGA letter arrives, you’re not scrambling—you already know where you stand.

What to do: Know your data before opposing counsel forces you to. Run proactive compliance audits on your time records—at minimum quarterly. Understand where your meal and rest break compliance stands across every location and every manager. Store your data properly and think about how you’ll use it defensively. And if a PAGA letter arrives, get your data analyzed immediately rather than going to mediation without understanding your actual exposure.

5. AI Can Transform Your Employee Training and Compliance Programs — Starting Today

Employers can take their  meal and rest break policy and have AI repurpose it into formats employees can fully engage with. It can simplify legal language into plain English. It can create quizzes for training sessions. Tools like Google’s NotebookLM can convert written policies into podcast-style audio that employees can listen to on their own time.

Compliance isn’t just having a policy—it’s making sure employees actually understand it and can access it in a format that works for them. And from a litigation defense perspective, being able to show that you didn’t just have a policy but that you actively trained on it, reinforced it, and made it accessible in multiple formats is powerful evidence of “reasonable steps” under the PAGA reform.

What to do: Start with one policy—meal and rest breaks is a great place to begin. Record a five-minute best-practice demonstration and use AI to turn it into reusable training content. Build a library over time. And think about your employees as an internal audience that needs to be marketed to—because the more they understand your policies, the more defensible your organization becomes.

The Bottom Line

AI is not coming to the California workplace—it’s already here. Your employees are using it whether you have a policy or not. California regulators are already holding employers accountable for how AI is used in hiring. And the federal courts have made clear that your AI conversations are not confidential.

But this is not just a story about risk. Employers who lean into AI strategically—who use it to train employees, audit compliance, analyze their data, and strengthen their litigation posture—are going to be in a fundamentally stronger position than those who ignore it or try to ban it. The employers who engage with this technology now, with eyes open and proper guardrails in place, will have a significant competitive advantage.

The post The FBI Seized a CEO’s AI Chats — And Four More Reasons California Employers Can’t Ignore AI Any Longer appeared first on California Employment Law Report.

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MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

MOMENTUM SCAN + SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

MOMENTUM SCAN + SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

Friday, February 28, 2026 – False Signal

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

💀 FALSE SIGNAL: Your scan: 68% GREEN (13/19) BUT only 19 stocks (vs 20 normal) = SHRINKING universe. QQQ -0.4%, SPY -0.2%, XLK -0.1%. Your scan shows EXCEPTIONS (survivors), not market reversal. Healthcare -0.6% (TXG -3.87%), Energy -0.5% (OII -2.18%, NRG -1.15%). CIEN +2.44%, GLW +1.40% = Relative strength in dying market. NO COLLAR TRADES. Wait for scan to expand to 30-40 stocks with 70%+ GREEN = Real accumulation. This is survivor bias, not recovery.

SECTION 1: MARKET OVERVIEW – STILL WEAK

Broad Market Indices

  • SPY (S&P 500): ~$690 -0.2% (still under pressure)
  • QQQ (Nasdaq-100): ~$604 -0.4% (third day of selling)
  • Russell 2000: ~$2,655 -0.4% (small caps weak)
  • VIX: 19.8 (elevated, fear persisting)
  • 10-Year Treasury: 4.08% ↓ from 4.12% (only positive)

3-DAY PROGRESSION: Wed: QQQ -0.4% (post-Nvidia) | Thu: QQQ -0.6% (distribution) | Fri: QQQ -0.4% (still selling). No reversal. 10-Year dropping (4.08%) not enough to offset selling pressure. This is distribution day 3.

SECTION 2: YOUR SCAN – SURVIVORS, NOT LEADERS

19 STOCKS (SHRINKING): 13 GREEN (68%), 6 RED (32%)

The Critical Insight:

  • Wednesday: 20 stocks, 65% RED = Distribution
  • Thursday: 20 stocks, 65% RED = Distribution
  • Friday: 19 stocks (↓), 68% GREEN = Universe SHRINKING

THE TRAP: 68% GREEN looks good BUT you lost 1 stock from your scan. When market is strong, your scan EXPANDS to 30-40 stocks with 70%+ GREEN. When market is weak, scan SHRINKS to 15-20 stocks. Friday: 68% of a SMALLER pool = SURVIVOR BIAS, not accumulation. These 19 are the last ones standing, not leaders of recovery.

TECHNOLOGY (7 stocks, 37%) – Selective Strength

GREEN (5 of 7):

  • CIEN +2.44% $349.48 – Communication equipment outlier
  • LITE +1.85% $689.53
  • COHR +1.54% $253.99
  • GLW +1.40% $152.40
  • AXTI +0.36%

RED (2 of 7):

  • KEYS -0.84%, FORM -1.16%

What This Really Means:

  • 71% tech GREEN = 5 of 7 survivors, not broad tech recovery
  • CIEN, GLW, LITE, COHR = Communication equipment niche
  • Most tech stocks (semiconductors, software, mega-caps) still selling

OTHER SECTORS – Confirms Weakness

INDUSTRIALS (2 stocks):

  • FTAI +1.48%, BE -1.96% = 50% split, no conviction

BASIC MATERIALS (3 stocks):

  • CDE +0.04%, HBM +0.11%, AA -0.84% = Tiny gains, weak

HEALTHCARE (3 stocks) – WEAK:

  • TXG -3.87% (getting crushed)
  • MRNA -0.18%, ELAN +0.13% = Weak

CONSUMER (2 stocks) – 100% RED:

  • ASO -2.10%, YOU -0.86%

ENERGY/UTILITIES (2 stocks) – 100% RED:

  • OII -2.18%, NRG -1.15%

SECTION 3: SECTOR ROTATION – CONFIRMS DISTRIBUTION

SPDR SECTOR ETF ANALYSIS – NO RECOVERY

SECTOR PERFORMANCE (Friday)

XLK (Technology) -0.1%

  • 3-Day Total: -1.5% (Wed -0.8%, Thu -0.6%, Fri -0.1%)
  • Volume: Still above average = Distribution continuing
  • YOUR Scan vs Reality: 
  •   • Your scan: 71% tech GREEN (CIEN +2.44%)
  •   • XLK: -0.1% = Most tech still RED
  •   • Your stocks = EXCEPTIONS, not sector trend
  • Signal: NO accumulation in tech sector

XLV (Healthcare) -0.6%

  • YOUR Scan Confirms: TXG -3.87%, MRNA -0.18%
  • Signal: Healthcare selling

XLE (Energy) -0.5%

  • YOUR Scan Confirms: OII -2.18%, NRG -1.15%
  • Signal: Energy/utilities weak

XLY (Consumer Discretionary) -0.4%

  • YOUR Scan Confirms: ASO -2.10%, YOU -0.86%

XLI (Industrials) -0.2%

  • YOUR Scan: FTAI +1.48% = Outlier, sector still weak

MICRO vs MACRO DISCONNECT: Your scan (68% GREEN) shows EXCEPTIONS. Sectors (XLK -0.1%, XLV -0.6%, XLE -0.5%) show REALITY = Broad selling. When your scan and sectors DISCONNECT = Trust sectors. Your 19 stocks are survivors in dying market, not leaders of recovery. This is LATE-STAGE distribution where only strongest names hold up temporarily.

SECTION 4: 10-YEAR TREASURY – ONLY POSITIVE

  • 4.08% ↓ from 4.12% = Only bullish factor
  • Problem: Even with yields dropping, QQQ -0.4%, SPY -0.2% = Selling overwhelming

SECTION 5: COLLAR OPPORTUNITIES – NONE

NO COLLAR TRADES – SURVIVOR BIAS, NOT RECOVERY

  • CIEN +2.44%: Outlier in XLK -0.1% sector = Trap
  • FTAI +1.48%: Outlier in XLI -0.2% sector = Trap
  • GLW +1.40%: Will get dragged down with XLK

SECTION 6: WHAT TO WATCH MONDAY

Signs of REAL Reversal:

  • Scan Expands: 30-40 stocks meeting criteria (not 19)
  • 70%+ GREEN: In LARGER pool
  • QQQ Positive: +0.5% or more
  • XLK Positive: +0.5% or more
  • Broad Tech Recovery: Not just communication equipment niche

SECTION 7: BOTTOM LINE

FALSE SIGNAL: Your 68% GREEN = Survivor bias, not recovery. 19 stocks (shrinking) vs 30-40 (expanding market). QQQ -0.4%, XLK -0.1% = Sectors confirm distribution. NO TRADES. Wait for Monday: scan expands to 30-40 stocks + 70%+ GREEN + QQQ/XLK positive = REAL accumulation. Trust MACRO sectors over MICRO exceptions. 💪

Friday, February 28, 2026 – Distribution Day 3

Scan shows survivors, not leaders. Trust the sectors.

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MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

DAY 2 POST-NVIDIA + SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

DAY 2 POST-NVIDIA + SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

Thursday, February 27, 2026 – Distribution Continues

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

💀 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – DISTRIBUTION DAY 2: Your scan: 65% RED (13/20), tech 50% (10/20) but 90% RED (-2% to -4.9% moves). XLK (Tech) -0.6%, XLI (Industrials) -0.5% confirming weakness. Only 3 stocks green: RNG +6.24%, UAL +2.77%, VSCO +3.31%. NO COLLAR TRADES – Distribution persists. 10-Year 4.12% = Silent Killer rising. 6:40 AM Watch: Does tech stabilize or break lower? Friday scan critical. DECISION: STAY OUT.

SECTION 1: MARKET OVERVIEW – DISTRIBUTION PERSISTS

Thursday Indices: Two Days of Selling

  • SPY (S&P 500): ~$691 -0.3% (slowly grinding lower)
  • QQQ (Nasdaq-100): ~$606 -0.6% (tech weakness continuing)
  • Russell 2000: ~$2,660 +0.1% (small caps holding up = rotation)
  • VIX: 19.8 (elevated, fear persisting)
  • 10-Year Treasury: 4.12% ↑ – THE SILENT KILLER RISING (was 4.10% yesterday)

CRITICAL: 10-Year yield RISING (4.10% → 4.12%) while tech selling continues = Double headwind. Nvidia beat didn’t matter Wednesday (-2.4%), tech still red Thursday. This is NOT profit-taking, this is DISTRIBUTION. Institutions rotating OUT of tech into defensives.

SECTION 2: YOUR FINVIZ MOMENTUM SCAN – 65% RED

20 STOCKS: 13 RED (65%), 7 GREEN (35%) = DISTRIBUTION DAY 2

Scan Statistics:

  • Total: 20 stocks (momentum criteria met)
  • RED: 13 of 20 (65%) 💀 = SAME as yesterday
  • GREEN: 7 of 20 (35%) = Improved from 1 green Wed, but weak gains
  • Technology: 10 of 20 (50%) = Still dominant concentration
  • Problem: 9 of 10 tech RED (90%) – Tech concentration = BEARISH

TECHNOLOGY (10 stocks, 50%) – 90% RED 💀

RED STOCKS (9 of 10):

  • LITE (Lumentum): -4.61% $690.01 – Communication equipment, $49B cap
  • COHR (Coherent): -4.19% $256.68 – Scientific instruments, $48B cap
  • CIEN (Ciena): -3.91% $339.52 – Communication equipment, $48B cap
  • TTM (TTM Tech): -3.23% $105.34 – Electronic components
  • GLW (Corning): -3.06% $155.52 – Electronic components, $133B cap (largest)
  • AAOI (Applied Opto): -2.19% $56.85
  • VSAT (Viasat): -1.71% $46.85 – Communication equipment
  • ST (Sensata): -0.71% $37.59 – Scientific instruments
  • Total: 9 tech RED = -2.0% to -4.6% range

GREEN STOCKS (1 of 10):

  • RNG (RingCentral): +6.24% $36.63 – Software application, ONLY tech green

TECH SIGNAL: 50% concentration BUT 90% RED = WORST possible combination. Tech dominates your scan but ALL selling. RNG +6.24% is outlier (software vs hardware). Hardware/components/communications ALL red 2 days straight. This is sector breakdown, not stock picking opportunity.

INDUSTRIALS (2 stocks) – 50% SPLIT

  • UAL (United Airlines): +2.77% $116.00 – Airlines/industrial
  • BE (Bloom Energy): -4.86% $166.27 – Electrical equipment

UTILITIES/HEALTHCARE (3 stocks) – 33% GREEN

  • MRNA (Moderna): +0.71% $51.74 – Biotech defensive
  • NRG (NRG Energy): -3.23% $177.66 – Utilities
  • ELAN (Elanco): -0.61% $26.67 – Animal health

CONSUMER/FINANCIAL/MATERIALS/ENERGY (5 stocks)

  • VSCO (Victoria’s Secret): +3.31% $64.21 – Consumer cyclical
  • MOD (Modine): -2.25% $225.00 – Auto parts
  • OII (Oceaneering): -2.43% $37.00 – Oil & gas equipment
  • XP (XP Inc): -1.88% $21.92 – Brazilian financial
  • HBM (Hudbay): -0.83% $27.48 – Copper
  • DNLI (Denali): -2.56% $21.72 – Biotech

SECTION 3: BROAD SECTOR ROTATION – TECH BREAKDOWN 🔥

SECTOR ETF ANALYSIS – TWO DAYS OF TECH SELLING

WEAKENING SECTORS (Continued Selling)

1. XLK (Technology) -0.6% 💀 (Wed -0.8%, Thu -0.6%)

  • 2-Day Performance: -1.4% total (Wed -0.8% + Thu -0.6%)
  • RS vs SPY: Deteriorating FAST
  • Volume: ABOVE average both days = DISTRIBUTION
  • YOUR Scan Confirms: 
  •   • 9 of 10 tech RED (LITE -4.61%, COHR -4.19%, CIEN -3.91%)
  •   • Only RNG +6.24% green = Outlier, not trend
  • Trade Signal: AVOID tech entirely until XLK positive + <40% RED scan

2. XLI (Industrials) -0.5%

  • YOUR Scan: BE -4.86% = Weakness, UAL +2.77% = Mixed signal
  • Signal: Cyclical uncertainty

NEUTRAL/DEFENSIVE SECTORS

1. XLV (Healthcare) +0.2% (Defensive Hold)

  • YOUR Scan: MRNA +0.71% confirms, but weak gain

2. XLP (Consumer Staples) +0.3%

  • YOUR Scan: VSCO +3.31% strong but consumer discretionary, not staples

SECTOR ROTATION INSIGHTS

MICRO + MACRO PERFECT ALIGNMENT DAY 2: Primary Flow: Tech distribution CONTINUES (XLK -1.4% 2-day). YOUR scan: 90% tech RED confirms. Rotation: AWAY from growth (tech) toward CASH (10-Year 4.12%). No defensive sector strong enough to lead = Market in limbo. This is distribution phase, not rotation. Wait for new leadership to emerge before trading.

SECTION 4: 10-YEAR TREASURY – SILENT KILLER RISING

4.12% ↑ FROM 4.10% – GETTING WORSE

  • Wednesday: 4.10% + Nvidia beat = Tech still fell
  • Thursday: 4.12% + No catalyst = Tech falling more
  • Signal: RISING yields = More pain for tech ahead

WHY THIS KILLS TECH: Every 0.1% rise in 10-Year = ~3% drop in tech valuations (DCF math). 4.12% means tech multiples 12% lower than at 3.7% yields. Even perfect earnings (Nvidia) can’t overcome this math. Until 10-Year drops below 4.0%, tech will struggle.

SECTION 5: COLLAR OPPORTUNITIES – STILL NONE

NO COLLAR TRADES – DISTRIBUTION CONTINUING

  • RNG +6.24%: Outlier in sea of RED, wait for confirmation
  • UAL +2.77%: Cyclical risk too high with XLI -0.5%
  • VSCO +3.31%: Consumer discretionary weak in risk-off

SECTION 6: 6:40-9:00 AM INSTITUTIONAL FLOW

  • Watch: Does tech stabilize or break lower?
  • QQQ $606: Key support, break = more downside
  • VIX 20: Above = fear spike

SECTION 7: BOTTOM LINE – YOUR EDGE

NO TRADES – FRIDAY SCAN CRITICAL

  • Edge: Your scan + sectors = Perfect agreement on distribution
  • Friday Plan: Run scan, look for <40% RED + tech positive
  • Week: 2 distribution days = Stay out until clear

Two days of distribution: 65% RED both days, tech -1.4% 2-day, 10-Year rising to 4.12%. NO TRADES. Trust the methodology. Friday scan will show if trend reverses. 💪

Thursday, February 27, 2026 – Distribution Day 2

MICRO scan + MACRO sectors = Stay out

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“Tariffs will eventually replace the income tax.”

— Donald Trump, State of the Union address

“Tariffs will eventually replace the income tax.”

— Donald Trump, State of the Union address

That line got attention for a reason. It’s bold. It sounds revolutionary. And on the surface, it sounds simple: tax foreign goods instead of taxing American paychecks.

The immediate reaction from most economists is: That can’t work.

But here’s the more serious question:

Could a modified version of that idea work — specifically eliminating income taxes for Americans earning under $100,000?

Let’s break it down like adults.


The Real Objective

Forget the slogan. The practical version of the idea would look like this:

  • Eliminate federal income tax for households under $100,000.
  • Use tariff revenue to offset the lost tax revenue.
  • Keep progressive income tax above $100,000.
  • Potentially combine with spending restraint.

This is not the same as eliminating income tax entirely. That’s fantasy math. This is a targeted restructuring.


Step 1: How Much Revenue Needs Replacing?

Households under $100,000 likely contribute somewhere in the range of:

$600–$800 billion annually in federal income tax revenue.

Let’s call it $700 billion for modeling purposes.

That’s the hole you’d need to fill.


Step 2: How Much Can Tariffs Raise?

The U.S. imports roughly $3.5 trillion in goods annually.

To generate $700 billion:700B÷3.5T=20700B ÷ 3.5T = 20%700B÷3.5T=20

That implies a 20% average tariff on all imports.

But here’s the catch:

  • Higher tariffs reduce import volume.
  • Businesses change supply chains.
  • Consumers adjust behavior.

So in reality, you might need 25–30% average tariffs to net $700 billion after economic adjustments.

That is aggressive — but not mathematically impossible.


Step 3: Who Actually Pays?

Tariffs are not paid by foreign governments.

They are paid by:

  • U.S. importers
  • Passed through to businesses
  • Passed through to consumers

That means prices would rise on:

  • Electronics
  • Vehicles
  • Clothing
  • Building materials
  • Some food inputs

In effect, tariffs function like a consumption tax.

So here’s the tradeoff:

You remove income taxes under $100K — but you increase consumer prices across imported goods.

The system shifts from income-based taxation to consumption-based taxation.

That’s not inherently wrong. It’s just a different philosophy.


Step 4: Who Wins and Who Loses?

A $75,000 household:

  • Federal income tax goes to zero.
  • They save several thousand dollars per year.
  • But they pay higher prices on goods.

If their consumption increases by 5–10% due to tariffs, the net effect could still be positive — depending on spending habits.

A $250,000 household:

  • They continue paying income tax.
  • They also pay higher prices.
  • They likely carry a larger share of the tax burden overall.

So the system becomes:

  • Progressive above $100K.
  • Consumption-based below $100K.

That’s a structural shift.


Step 5: Inflation and Economic Shock

A 25% broad tariff would not be painless.

Expect:

  • Short-term price spikes.
  • Supply chain disruption.
  • Retaliatory tariffs from trade partners.
  • Market volatility.

You cannot implement something this large without economic friction.

The question is not whether there would be disruption. There would be.

The question is whether policymakers would accept that disruption in exchange for shifting tax burden away from wages.


Step 6: Could It Be Structured Smarter?

If this were designed seriously — not as a rally line — it would likely require:

  1. Gradual phase-in over several years.
  2. Targeted tariffs rather than blanket across-the-board rates.
  3. Spending reductions to reduce the revenue requirement.
  4. Possibly pairing tariffs with a modest national consumption tax (VAT) to stabilize revenue.
  5. Border adjustment mechanisms to prevent extreme retaliation.

In other words: a full fiscal restructuring, not just a slogan.


The Hard Truth

Could tariffs completely replace income taxes?

No. The scale doesn’t work.

Could tariffs help eliminate income taxes below $100,000?

Mathematically — yes.

Politically — maybe.

Economically — disruptive but possible.

The real debate isn’t whether it’s numerically feasible. It is.

The real debate is this:

Are Americans willing to trade:

  • Higher consumer prices
    for
  • No federal income tax on the first $100,000 of earnings?

That’s a philosophical choice about how we fund government.

Trump’s quote isn’t a detailed fiscal blueprint. It’s a directional statement about shifting the tax base.

Whether that shift is wise depends on your view of:

  • Fairness
  • Economic efficiency
  • Government spending levels
  • America’s role in global trade

What it is not — despite what critics say — is pure fantasy. But it would require far more structural reform than a single speech suggests.

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Western Digital: The Vault That AI Can’t Live Without — And Whether You’re Paying Too Much for It

Copy

Western Digital: The Vault That AI Can’t Live Without — And Whether You’re Paying Too Much for It

The Hedge | February 2026


Everyone is obsessed with the brains of AI. Nvidia gets the headlines. AMD gets the fanboy debates. Microsoft and Google get the strategy pieces. But nobody talks about where all that AI data actually lives — permanently, cheaply, at scale. That’s Western Digital’s business, and right now Wall Street has suddenly figured it out.

The stock is up roughly 970% in the past year. It hit an all-time high of $309 just last week. It’s currently trading around $270. The question every serious investor needs to answer right now is simple: is this still a buy, or did you already miss it?


What Western Digital Actually Does

Western Digital makes hard disk drives and, until recently, NAND flash memory through its Sandisk division. The company just spun off Sandisk, so what you’re buying today when you buy WDC is essentially a pure-play HDD business — the largest in the world alongside Seagate.

That might sound boring. Hard drives have been around since the 1950s. Your grandfather had one. But here’s what most people miss: the AI revolution has made hard drives more relevant, not less.

Here’s why. Every time you interact with ChatGPT, every time a self-driving car processes a day’s worth of sensor data, every time a data center trains a new model — that data has to live somewhere. SSDs are fast but expensive. You can’t store an exabyte of training data on SSDs without spending a fortune. Hard drives store that data for a fraction of the cost.

Western Digital delivered 215 exabytes of storage to customers in its most recent quarter alone — a 22% increase year over year. Cloud and AI data centers accounted for 89% of total revenue. This isn’t a consumer electronics story anymore. It’s pure infrastructure.


The Business Is Actually Performing

Let’s look at the numbers, because the story isn’t just hype.

Last quarter Western Digital reported revenue of $3.1 billion — up 25% year over year and beating estimates by over 6%. Gross margins came in at 46.1%, up 770 basis points from the same period a year ago. Operating income crossed $1 billion. Free cash flow was $653 million. The company just authorized an additional $4 billion in share buybacks.

For next quarter they’re guiding to $3.2 billion in revenue and gross margins of 47-48%. The trajectory is clearly up.

CEO Irving Tan has made no secret of the strategy: AI is the company’s core growth engine, and the company is investing heavily in next-generation HDD technology — specifically HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) and ePMR — which dramatically increases storage density per drive. More data per drive means lower cost per byte for the data center, which means more demand for WDC drives.

This is not a turnaround story. This is a company that was nearly left for dead in the 2022-2023 storage cycle downturn — when the stock was trading under $30 — that has emerged leaner, more focused, and positioned at the center of the most powerful infrastructure buildout in a generation.


The AI Storage Thesis in Plain English

Here is the simplest version of why WDC matters for AI:

GPUs are useless without data. Training a large language model requires feeding it enormous amounts of text, images, and video — often hundreds of petabytes. Running that model after training (inference) requires fast retrieval of parameters that can be tens or hundreds of gigabytes. And storing all the outputs, logs, user interactions, and retraining data requires cheap, reliable, high-capacity storage that runs 24 hours a day.

The ratio that matters: for every dollar spent on compute in an AI data center, roughly ten to twenty dollars gets spent on storage infrastructure. The GPU gets the glory. The hard drive does the work.

Western Digital and Seagate essentially operate a duopoly in enterprise HDD. When Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta build out data centers — and they are spending hundreds of billions doing exactly that — there are exactly two companies they can call for the drives. Western Digital is one of them.


Is It Overpriced Right Now?

Here’s where honest analysis requires stepping back from the enthusiasm.

The stock hit $309 eight days ago and is already back to $270 — a 12% pullback in under two weeks. That’s a warning sign worth taking seriously.

Morningstar, which is generally conservative in its estimates, has a fair value of $238 on WDC and rates it a one-star stock — meaning they think it’s significantly overvalued at current prices. Their concern is structural: the HDD market is fundamentally cyclical and commodity-like. When the cycle turns — and it always does — margins compress fast and the stock gets crushed. They watched it happen from 2022 to 2023 when WDC fell from $75 to under $30.

The more bullish Wall Street consensus has a median price target of $325, with some analysts going as high as $440. Twenty analysts have it rated Buy and zero have it rated Sell. That kind of unanimity should always make a disciplined investor slightly nervous — Wall Street tends to pile on after a run, not before it.

At $270 the stock trades at roughly 27 times trailing earnings. That’s not crazy for a high-growth infrastructure name, but it’s not cheap either — especially for a business that can see earnings evaporate quickly when storage pricing softens.

The Sandisk sale adds another wrinkle. Western Digital just sold a $3.17 billion stake in Sandisk — the flash memory business it spun off. That’s a significant capital event that tells you management sees value in monetizing that position now. Whether that’s a vote of confidence in the core HDD business or a signal that they’re taking chips off the table is a legitimate question.


The Bottom Line

Western Digital is a real company with real earnings, a genuine competitive moat, and a structural tailwind that isn’t going away. The AI data center buildout is not a fad — it is a multi-decade infrastructure investment that requires more storage every single year. WDC is one of two companies that can supply it at scale.

But the stock has run almost 1,000% in a year. It just made an all-time high and pulled back 12% in eight days. Morningstar thinks fair value is $238 — 12% below where it’s trading today. The cycle risk is real: this industry has a history of brutal downturns when supply outpaces demand.

The honest answer is this: the long-term thesis is solid but you are not getting this cheap. If you are a long-term investor who can hold through a potential 30-40% drawdown when the next storage cycle correction hits, WDC at $270 is probably still a reasonable entry with patience. If you need to be right in the next six months, the risk/reward is less clear.

For options traders — and this is a name worth watching for a collar position — the implied volatility after a 970% run means premium is rich. The put protection is expensive but the call income is also elevated. It’s a name worth putting on the watchlist for when the next meaningful pullback gives you a better cost basis.

The vault that AI can’t live without is real. The price you pay for the vault still matters.


The Hedge publishes systematic trading commentary and analysis for disciplined investors. Nothing in this post constitutes financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

Blog

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

NVIDIA EARNINGS DAY – 40% GREEN IMPROVING

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 – THE CATALYST

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

🔥 IMPROVEMENT BUT NOT THERE YET: Your scan: 40% GREEN (8/20), 20 stocks returned, tech 30% (6/20). BETTER than Mon/Tue but still below threshold. Sectors: XLK (Tech) +0.5% pre-Nvidia, XLB (Materials) still weak. Decision: NO TRADES pre-Nvidia. Run post-earnings scan Thursday IF Nvidia beats + guides strong. Methodology: 8 for 8.

SECTION 1: MARKET SETUP – NVIDIA ANTICIPATION

Wednesday Pre-Market: Hope Building

  • NVDA Pre-Market: +0.8% – Anticipation building for 4:20 PM results
  • Expectations: Revenue $65.7B (+67% YoY), EPS $1.53 (+72% YoY)
  • Market Consensus: 95% of Polymarket bettors expect BEAT (per Kalshi)
  • The Wild Card: Guidance for fiscal 2027 Q1 (expect $70.7B)

Two Days of Distribution Context

  • Monday: Dow -820 pts, your scan 53% RED (15 stocks)
  • Tuesday: Your scan 56% RED (16 stocks), distribution worsening
  • Wednesday: 40% GREEN (8/20), 20 stocks = IMPROVEMENT but not threshold

SECTION 2: YOUR FINVIZ SCAN – IMPROVING BUT CAUTIOUS

20 STOCKS, 40% GREEN = IMPROVING BUT NOT EXECUTE THRESHOLD

Wednesday Scan: Distribution Easing

  • Total Stocks: 20 (back to normal from Mon 15, Tue 16)
  • GREEN: 8 of 20 (40%) – Better than Mon 47%, Tue 44%
  • RED: 12 of 20 (60%) – Still majority distribution
  • Technology: 6 of 20 (30%) – Below 40% threshold
  • Signal: Improving but need <20% RED + 40%+ concentration

TECHNOLOGY (6 stocks, 30%) – 67% GREEN 🔥

  • GREEN (4 of 6):
  • MU (Micron): +2.41% $428.07 – SEMICONDUCTORS LEADING (Mon -1.49% reversed)
  • TTM (TTM Technologies): +2.93% $109.83 – Electronic components strong
  • MKSI (MKS Instruments): +2.26% $257.10 – Scientific instruments
  • CIEN (Ciena): +1.60% $348.20 – Communication equipment
  • RED (2 of 6):
  • ST (Sensata): +0.42% $38.52 – Barely green, weak
  • ACMR (ACM Research): +0.15% $67.86 – Semiconductor equipment

Tech Analysis:

  • MU +2.41% = Semiconductors reversing Monday -1.49% weakness
  • 67% GREEN (4/6) = Strong but only 30% of scan
  • Problem: Need 40%+ concentration (8+ stocks), currently only 6

BASIC MATERIALS (4 stocks, 20%) – 100% GREEN 🔥

  • CENX (Century Aluminum): +2.93% $55.08 – REVERSING 2-day collapse
  • CDE (Coeur Mining): +1.17% $25.07 – Gold recovering
  • HBM (Hudbay Minerals): +0.97% $28.07 – Copper
  • ESI (Element Solutions): -0.87% $36.39 – Only materials red

Materials Reversal:

  • Monday: CENX -3.12% (aluminum collapse)
  • Tuesday: CENX -1.43% (continued weakness)
  • Wednesday: CENX +2.93% = Bounce but from oversold

INDUSTRIALS (3 stocks, 15%) – 67% GREEN

  • BE (Bloom Energy): +4.45% $173.60 – Electrical equipment leader
  • FLR (Fluor): +0.99% $53.62 – Engineering/construction
  • FTAI (FTAI Aviation): -0.60% $302.11 – Rental/leasing

ENERGY (2 stocks, 10%) – 50% SPLIT

  • VAL (Valaris): +0.54% $96.43
  • OII (Oceaneering): -0.08% $38.79

HEALTHCARE (3 stocks, 15%) – 100% GREEN

  • MRNA (Moderna): +2.54% $51.81 – Biotech rebounding
  • DNLI (Denali): +0.96% $21.64
  • CGON (Cg Oncology): +0.54% $58.65

FINANCIAL (2 stocks, 10%) – 100% GREEN

  • HUT (Hut 8): +1.51% $60.08 – Crypto/Bitcoin exposure
  • XP (XP Inc): +1.27% $22.74 – Brazilian financial recovering

SECTION 3: BROAD SECTOR ROTATION – NVIDIA ANTICIPATION 🔥

SECTOR ETF ANALYSIS – CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM

STRENGTHENING SECTORS (Cautious Recovery)

1. XLK (Technology) +0.5% (Nvidia Anticipation) 🔥

  • RS vs SPY: Improving slightly (market waiting for 4:20 PM)
  • Volume: Below average = Positioning, not conviction
  • Key Drivers: 95% expect Nvidia beat, but GUIDANCE is what matters
  • Lead Stocks in YOUR Scan: 
  •   • MU +2.41% (semiconductors recovering)
  •   • TTM +2.93%, MKSI +2.26%, CIEN +1.60%
  • Problem: Only 6 tech stocks (30% of scan), need 8+ (40%)

2. XLB (Materials) -0.2% (Oversold Bounce)

  • RS vs SPY: Still weak but bouncing from Mon/Tue collapse
  • In YOUR Scan: CENX +2.93% (reversing Mon -3.12%, Tue -1.43%)
  • Signal: Bounce from oversold, NOT sector strength

NEUTRAL/WAITING SECTORS

1. XLV (Healthcare) +0.3% (Defensive Hold)

  • In YOUR Scan: MRNA +2.54%, DNLI +0.96%, CGON +0.54% (100% green)
  • Signal: Defensive positioning, waiting for Nvidia

2. XLE (Energy) +0.2% (Fading)

  • In YOUR Scan: VAL +0.54%, OII -0.08% = Losing momentum
  • Comparison: Tuesday 100% green, Wednesday 50% split

SECTOR ROTATION INSIGHTS

MICRO + MACRO ALIGNMENT: Primary Flow: Market WAITING for Nvidia (4:20 PM). Tech improving but cautious (XLK +0.5%, your scan MU +2.41%). Materials bouncing from oversold (XLB -0.2%, CENX +2.93%). Energy fading (XLE +0.2%, OII/VAL weakening). Rotation Type: ANTICIPATION, not conviction. Your scan: 40% GREEN better than Mon/Tue but need <20% RED + 40%+ tech concentration.

SECTION 4: TRADE DECISION – WAIT FOR NVIDIA

NO TRADES PRE-NVIDIA – IMPROVING BUT NOT THRESHOLD

Edge Requirements:

  • 1. Sector Concentration (need 40%+): ❌ 30% – Tech 6/20, need 8+
  • 2. Institutional Buying (need <20% RED): ❌ 60% RED – Better than Mon/Tue but still distribution
  • 3. Clean Momentum: ⚠ IMPROVING – MU +2.41% leading, but need confirmation
  • 4. Low Volatility: ❌ NVIDIA EVENT – Earnings 4:20 PM

Score: 0.5 of 4 = WAIT FOR POST-NVIDIA THURSDAY SCAN

THURSDAY MORNING STRATEGY

IF Nvidia BEATS + Strong Guidance:

  • Run Thursday 6:40 AM scan
  • Look For: 
  •   • 70%+ GREEN (14+ of 20)
  •   • 40%+ tech concentration (8+ tech stocks)
  •   • MU/semiconductors leading
  • Action: EXECUTE 50-75% size if all 4 requirements met

IF Nvidia Misses OR Weak Guidance:

  • Action: STAY OUT, wait for distribution to clear

SECTION 5: METHODOLOGY – 8 FOR 8

  • Mon Feb 10: 35% RED → Saved ✅
  • Tue Feb 17: 65% RED → Saved ✅
  • Wed Feb 18: 80% GREEN → Executed ✅
  • Thu Feb 19: 70% RED → Exited ✅
  • Fri Feb 20: 60% GREEN → Cautious ✅
  • Mon Feb 23: 53% RED → NO TRADES ✅
  • Tue Feb 24: 56% RED → NO TRADES ✅
  • Wed Feb 25: 40% GREEN → NO TRADES (wait for Nvidia) ✅

IMPROVING: 20 stocks back, 40% GREEN (vs Mon/Tue 53-56% RED). Tech 30% (MU +2.41% leading) but need 40%. XLK +0.5% waiting. Materials bouncing (CENX +2.93%). NO TRADES pre-Nvidia. Run Thursday scan IF beats + strong guidance. 8 for 8. 💪

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 – Nvidia Earnings 4:20 PM

Improving but not execute threshold. Wait for Thursday post-earnings scan.

Blog

Calculating and Tracking FMLA Leave Including Travel to Medical Appointments

New guidance from the U.S. Department of Labor is changing how employers should track FMLA leave tied to medical appointments. In this episode of California Employment News, Weintraub Tobin shareholders Lizbeth (Beth) V. West and Meagan Bainbridge break down the DOL’s recent opinion letter and provide a practical refresher on how to properly calculate and track FMLA leave in a variety of scenarios.

In this episode of California Employment News, Weintraub Tobin attorneys Lizbeth (Beth) V. West and Meagan Bainbridge discuss:

  • The DOL’s January 5, 2026 opinion letter confirming that FMLA leave can include travel time to and from medical appointments
  • Why travel time is considered part and parcel of obtaining medical care
  • Eligibility requirements for FMLA leave – How to calculate leave for continuous versus intermittent or reduced schedule leave
  • How to convert 12 workweeks into an hourly equivalent for tracking purposes
  • How to calculate leave for employees with fluctuating or variable schedules
  • How overtime, holidays, and physically impossible mid-shift returns impact FMLA tracking

Watch this episode on the Weintraub YouTube channel.

Blog

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

DISTRIBUTION DAY 2 + SECTOR ROTATION ANALYSIS

Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – 56% RED + Materials Collapse

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

💀 DISTRIBUTION + SECTOR ROTATION: Your scan: 56% RED (9/16), 16 stocks. Sector rotation: XLB (Materials) -1.1% collapsing (CENX -1.43% confirms), XLE (Energy) +0.8% (OII/VAL green confirms), XLK (Tech) -0.3% waiting for Nvidia. MICRO scan + MACRO sectors = Complete distribution picture. NO TRADES.

SECTION 1: MARKET OVERVIEW – MONDAY BLOODBATH

Monday Carnage Sets Tuesday Tone

  • Dow Jones: -820 points (-1.7%) to 48,804 – Trump 15% tariff chaos
  • S&P 500: -1.04% to 6,838 – Broad distribution
  • Nasdaq: -1.1% to 22,627 – AI anxiety + Nvidia wait
  • Tuesday Pre-Market: SPY +0.20%, QQQ +0.30% (weak bounce, hope not conviction)

SECTION 2: YOUR FINVIZ SCAN – 56% RED DISTRIBUTION

16 STOCKS, 56% RED = MICRO DISTRIBUTION VIEW

Tuesday Scan: Distribution Continuing

  • Total: 16 stocks (vs 20 normal, vs Monday 15)
  • RED: 9 of 16 (56%) – Worse than Monday 53%
  • Technology: 7 stocks (44%) – Below 40% threshold
  • No Concentration: Scattered across sectors

Technology (7 stocks): GREEN but weak

  • GREEN: SNDK +1.82%, GLW +1.19%, COHR +0.55%, TTM +0.51%, LITE +0.39%
  • RED: AAOI -5.11%, CIEN -0.27%

Basic Materials (2 stocks): 50% split

  • GREEN: CSTM +0.95%
  • RED: CENX -1.43% (Mon -3.12%, Tue -1.43% = collapsing)

Energy (2 stocks): 100% GREEN

  • OII +0.70%, VAL +0.73% (but only 13% of scan)

Healthcare/Consumer/Financial (5 stocks): Mixed

  • GREEN: VSCO +2.38%, CGON +0.43% | RED: MRNA -0.17%, XP -1.08%

SECTION 3: BROAD SECTOR ROTATION – MACRO VIEW 🔥

SPDR SECTOR ETF ANALYSIS – INSTITUTIONAL MONEY FLOWS

STRENGTHENING SECTORS (Money Flowing IN)

1. XLE (Energy) +0.8% 🔥

  • Relative Strength vs SPY: Improving (tariff chaos = energy security premium)
  • Volume Profile: Above 20-day average = Accumulation pattern
  • Key Drivers: Iran tensions + Trump tariff uncertainty = Oil demand
  • Lead Stocks in YOUR Scan: OII +0.70%, VAL +0.73% (100% green)
  • Problem: Only 2 stocks, 13% of scan = Too small to trade

2. XLV (Healthcare) -0.2% (Defensive bid FAILING)

  • RS vs SPY: Flat (money seeking safety but unconvinced)
  • Volume: Below average = No conviction
  • In YOUR Scan: MRNA -0.17%, CGON +0.43% = Mixed, no leadership

WEAKENING SECTORS (Money Flowing OUT)

1. XLB (Materials) -1.1% 💀

  • RS vs SPY: Deteriorating rapidly
  • Volume Profile: Above average = DISTRIBUTION
  • Key Headwinds: Trump 15% tariffs killing aluminum/commodity demand
  • Weak Stocks in YOUR Scan: 
  •   • CENX -1.43% (two days down: Mon -3.12%, Tue -1.43%)
  •   • CSTM +0.95% (weak bounce, trend broken)
  •   • IAG dropped out of scan (Monday -3.73% killed it)
  • Trade Signal: AVOID Materials entirely

2. XLK (Technology) -0.3% (Nvidia waiting pattern)

  • RS vs SPY: Neutral (coiled spring waiting for Nvidia)
  • Volume: Below average = Institutions on sidelines
  • In YOUR Scan: 7 stocks (44% of scan) BUT:
  •   • Small gains: GLW +1.19%, COHR +0.55%, TTM +0.51%
  •   • AAOI -5.11% = Communication equipment weakness
  •   • SNDK +1.82% = Outlier, not sector leadership

SECTOR ROTATION INSIGHTS

MICRO + MACRO CONFIRMATION: Primary Flow: Money rotating FROM Materials (XLB -1.1%) TO Energy (XLE +0.8%). Rotation Type: RISK-OFF defensive positioning. YOUR Scan Confirms: CENX -1.43% aluminum collapse matches XLB weakness. OII +0.70%, VAL +0.73% matches XLE strength. Tech 44% scattered matches XLK -0.3% waiting. MICRO scan + MACRO sectors = Complete distribution picture.

SECTION 4: 10-YEAR TREASURY & SECTOR IMPACT

  • Current Yield: 4.08% (stable, elevated)
  • Pressuring: XLU (Utilities), XLRE (Real Estate) – rate-sensitive sectors weak
  • Favoring: XLF (Financials) – higher rates = better net interest margins
  • YOUR Scan Impact: ZERO financials in scan = Confirms risk-off defensive posture

SECTION 5: TRADE DECISION – NO TRADES

NO TRADES – DISTRIBUTION CONFIRMED BY BOTH VIEWS

  • MICRO View (Your Scan): 56% RED, no concentration ❌
  • MACRO View (Sectors): XLB collapsing, XLK waiting, defensive rotation ❌
  • Score: 0 of 4 requirements = NO TRADES

SECTION 6: METHODOLOGY – 7 FOR 7

  • Mon Feb 10: 35% RED → Saved ✅
  • Tue Feb 17: 65% RED → Saved ✅
  • Wed Feb 18: 80% GREEN → Executed ✅
  • Thu Feb 19: 70% RED → Exited ✅
  • Fri Feb 20: 60% GREEN → Cautious ✅
  • Mon Feb 23: 53% RED → NO TRADES ✅
  • Tue Feb 24: 56% RED + XLB collapse → NO TRADES ✅

MICRO Scan (56% RED) + MACRO Sectors (XLB -1.1%, XLK -0.3%) = Complete Distribution Picture. Aluminum collapsing, Tech waiting for Nvidia, Energy only bright spot but too small. NO TRADES. Wednesday scan + Nvidia results = Next decision. 💪

Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – MICRO + MACRO Analysis

Your FinViz scan (MICRO) + Sector ETFs (MACRO) = Complete Picture

Blog

MORNING MARKET COMMENTARY

TARIFF CHAOS – TRUMP RAISES TO 15% – 53% RED

Monday, February 23, 2026 – RELIEF RALLY DESTROYED

Timothy McCandless – Protected Wheel Strategy

💀 SUPREME COURT BACKFIRE: Friday relief rally (Supreme Court struck down tariffs) DESTROYED by Trump raising tariffs to 15% over weekend. QQQ -1.00% overnight, VIX +8.70% to 20.75. Your scan: 53% RED (8 of 15), only 15 stocks (normally 20), MU -1.49%, tech collapsing. Friday was ONE-DAY relief rally. Decision: NO TRADES.

SECTION 1: WHAT HAPPENED – THE WEEKEND DISASTER

Friday: Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs

  • Decision: Supreme Court 6-3 ruling: Trump tariffs ILLEGAL under IEEPA
  • Market Reaction: S&P +0.72%, Nasdaq +0.86% = Relief rally
  • Your Friday Scan: 60% GREEN (20 stocks, but no concentration)
  • Expectation: $175B in refunds, lower import costs, trade relief

Saturday-Sunday: Trump Doubles Down

  • Trump Response: Called justices “disgrace,” said he was “ashamed” of them
  • Friday Evening: Announced NEW 10% global tariff using DIFFERENT law (Section 122)
  • Saturday: RAISED tariffs to 15% (HIGHER than original tariffs)
  • Legal Status: $133B already collected, refund process unclear
  • Result: Supreme Court victory = MEANINGLESS

THE BAIT AND SWITCH: Supreme Court struck down tariffs using one law (IEEPA) → Trump immediately used DIFFERENT law (Section 122) → Then RAISED to 15% over weekend. Market rallied Friday thinking tariffs gone. Monday opens to WORSE tariff situation than before. Classic whipsaw.

SECTION 2: MONDAY MARKET – THE CARNAGE

Pre-Market Collapse

  • QQQ: -1.00% overnight (Friday close 608.81 → Monday 602.71)
  • VIX: +8.70% to 20.75 (fear spiking back)
  • Russell 2000: -1.06% to 2,619.75 (small caps hit)
  • Futures: Dow -200 points at open, confusion reigning

MARKET PSYCHOLOGY: Friday: “Tariffs gone, celebrate!” → Weekend: Trump raises tariffs HIGHER → Monday: Markets gap down in disgust. This is WORSE than before Supreme Court ruling because now there’s NO legal certainty. Trump can change tariffs on a whim using different laws. Chaos.

SECTION 3: YOUR SCAN – 53% RED DISTRIBUTION

ONLY 15 STOCKS + 53% RED = DISTRIBUTION

Monday Scan Statistics:

  • Total Stocks: 15 (normally 20) = Fewer stocks meeting institutional criteria
  • RED: 8 of 15 (53%) 💀 = DISTRIBUTION
  • GREEN: 7 of 15 (47%) = Losing
  • Technology: 5 of 15 (33%) = Concentration BROKEN
  • Basic Materials: 5 of 15 (33%) = Defensive rotation, but weak

Compare to Friday:

  • Friday: 20 stocks, 60% GREEN (12/20), S&P +0.72%, relief rally
  • Monday: 15 stocks, 53% RED (8/15), QQQ -1.00%, fear returning

TECHNOLOGY (5 stocks) – 60% GREEN BUT WEAK 💀

  • SNDK (SanDisk): +4.89% $681.78 – Outlier, strong but isolated
  • COHR (Coherent): +1.25% $251.28 – Scientific instruments
  • CIEN (Ciena): +1.24% $339.10 – Communication equipment
  • TTM (TTM Technologies): +0.01% $107.94 – Electronic components, barely green
  • Tech GREEN: 4 of 5 (80%) BUT…
  • MU (Micron): -1.49% $421.79 – SEMICONDUCTORS WEAK = TECH BROKEN

Why This Matters:

  • Friday: MU +2.51% = Semiconductor recovery
  • Monday: MU -1.49% = Friday bounce was SHORT-COVERING
  • Result: Tech sector has no leader, SNDK +4.89% is noise, MU weakness = real signal

BASIC MATERIALS (5 stocks) – 40% GREEN, MOSTLY RED 💀

  • GREEN (2 of 5):
  • IAG (Iamgold): +2.14% $22.67 – Gold, defensive flight
  • SCCO (Southern Copper): +1.29% $203.61 – Copper holding
  • RED (3 of 5):
  • CENX (Century Aluminum): -3.12% $51.00 – Friday tariff relief play DEAD
  • ESI (Element Solutions): -1.69% $34.84 – Specialty chemicals
  • CSTM (Constellium): -1.38% $25.09 – Aluminum, Friday rally REVERSED

Friday vs Monday Aluminum:

  • Friday: Aluminum stocks GREEN (tariff relief = lower import costs)
  • Monday: Aluminum stocks RED (15% tariffs WORSE than before)

OTHER SECTORS (5 stocks) – 40% GREEN

  • GREEN (2 of 5):
  • MRNA (Moderna): +4.25% $51.99 – Healthcare/biotech defensive
  • HSAI (Hesai Group): +2.52% $28.46 – Auto parts, China exposure
  • RED (3 of 5):
  • XP (XP Inc): -3.44% $22.16 – Brazilian financial services
  • ZIM (Zim Shipping): -1.36% $28.87 – Marine shipping, trade concerns
  • WDC (Western Digital): -0.47% $284.18 – Computer hardware

YOUR SCAN SIGNAL: Only 15 stocks (vs 20) ❌ + 53% RED (8/15) ❌ + Tech concentration broken (33%, need 40%+) ❌ + MU -1.49% (semiconductor weakness) ❌ + Aluminum collapse ❌ + VIX +8.70% ❌ = DISTRIBUTION. Friday relief rally was ONE DAY. Institutions selling Monday. NO TRADES.

SECTION 4: TRADE DECISION – ABSOLUTELY NO TRADES

PRIMARY RECOMMENDATION: NO TRADES

Your Edge Requirements Analysis:

  • 1. Sector Concentration (need 40%+): ❌ BROKEN – Tech 33%, Materials 33%, scattered
  • 2. Institutional Buying (need <20% RED): ❌ DISTRIBUTION – 53% RED (8 of 15)
  • 3. Clean Momentum: ❌ BROKEN – MU weak, semiconductors reversing, mixed signals
  • 4. Low Volatility: ❌ SPIKING – VIX +8.70% to 20.75, fear returning

Score: 0 of 4 = CLEAR NO TRADES SIGNAL

SECTION 5: THE 6-DAY EVOLUTION – METHODOLOGY PERFECT

YOUR SCAN: 6 DAYS, 6 PERFECT SIGNALS

The Week That Proved Everything:

  • Monday Feb 10: 35% RED → Wait → Saved ✅
  • Tuesday Feb 17: 65% RED → Wait → Saved ($3B exits) ✅
  • Wednesday Feb 18: 80% GREEN + 70% tech → Execute (50% size) → Profitable ✅
  • Thursday Feb 19: 70% RED + Fed hawkish → Exit → Locked +3-5% ✅
  • Friday Feb 20: 60% GREEN + tariff relief → Cautious, wait for Monday ✅
  • Monday Feb 23: 53% RED + 15 stocks + chaos → NO TRADES ✅

FRIDAY WARNING VALIDATED: Friday commentary said: “60% GREEN without concentration = wait for Monday confirmation because tariff relief is one-time event.” Monday CONFIRMS: 53% RED distribution. Relief rally lasted ONE DAY. Methodology saved you from -1% gap down trap. This is why you trust the scan.

SECTION 6: WHAT TO WATCH – NVIDIA WEDNESDAY

Wednesday: Nvidia Earnings – THE CATALYST

  • Expectations: 71% EPS growth year-over-year, $35B+ revenue
  • Importance: Bellwether for ENTIRE AI sector + tech leadership
  • Context: Market needs NEW catalyst to move past tariff chaos
  • Your Action: Run Wednesday morning scan BEFORE earnings, THEN decide

Tuesday Morning Scan – CRITICAL

  • Question: Does distribution continue or stabilize?
  • Look For: 
  •   • <35% RED = Stabilizing (anything >35% = still distribution)
  •   • 20 stocks = Scan returning to normal
  •   • 40%+ sector concentration = Leadership emerging
  •   • MU positive = Semiconductors stabilizing

SECTION 7: BOTTOM LINE – TRUST YOUR METHODOLOGY

DECISION: NO TRADES MONDAY

CONFIDENCE: ABSOLUTE 💀

POSITION SIZE: ZERO

NEXT SCAN: Tuesday 6:40 AM, then Wednesday pre-Nvidia

Supreme Court Victory → Trump 15% Tariffs → Scan: 53% RED

Friday relief rally was ONE DAY trap. Supreme Court struck down tariffs, Trump raised to 15%. Monday: 53% RED (8 of 15), only 15 stocks, MU -1.49%, VIX +8.70%, QQQ -1%. Distribution confirmed. NO TRADES. Trust methodology: 6 days, 6 perfect signals. Nvidia Wednesday = Next opportunity. 💪

Commentary compiled: Monday, February 23, 2026 – Tariff Chaos Returns

Methodology: 6 for 6. Friday warned, Monday confirmed distribution.

Next catalyst: Nvidia earnings Wednesday. Run Tuesday & Wednesday scans first.

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Are Direct-Hire 1099s Over?

Many industries rely on hiring independent contractors — sometimes referred to as “1099 employees” — for temporary or seasonal work. But is that the best practice for labor and employment compliance? Clearly not in California, given our special rules limiting the practice and adding additional requirements under the ABC standard.

Join Fox Rothschild Partner Colin Dougherty for our firm’s next webinar on February 25, 2026 at 10:30 am PT, in our workplace-focused “Shield Your Business” series. He’ll discuss current recommendations regarding 1099 hiring and what your business should consider. Register here.

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